Public Attitudes toward Polls: Evidence from the 2000 U.S. Presidential Election

This study investigates the perceived impact of election polls,focusing on the hotly contested 2000 U.S. presidential election.Survey data from 558 individuals gathered during the final daysof the election campaign are analyzed to examine beliefs thatthe polls greatly affect other voters, general views of pollsas good or bad for the country, beliefs about whether pollstersinfluence their results to come out a certain way, and supportfor banning election-night projections. Results indicate thatmost respondents felt the polls had no influence on themselveswhile still affecting others. Respondents exhibiting these ‘third-person-effect’perceptions were significantly more likely than others to believethat election polls are a bad thing for the country. Negativeperceptions of polls and beliefs that pollsters try to influenceresults were also related to general distrust of the news media.Negative views of polls in turn were associated with increasedsupport for prohibiting election-night projections. In general,the results illustrate the dependency of negative views aboutpolling on fears of untoward effects on voters, in particularthe fear that polls and election projections might lend supportto candidates opposed by the respondent.     

Foresight analysis in research funding agencies: A UK experiment

Strategic planning and priority-setting have become inevitable for UK research funding agencies in the 1990's. But it is an activity which is viewed with some suspicion by the scientific community, in which it is an aphorism that discovery cannot be planned. There is considerable interest therefore, in the promise offoresight analysis as an alternative to conventional strategic planning. Most previous experience with foresight has been at a macro level, with a focus on national direction-setting. But what role can foresight have at amicro level; how can it help individual funding agencies develop strategies for specific scientific fields? This paper explores the problem by describing an experiment, supported jointly by three UK funding agencies, to apply foresight techniques in a review of a single field (cardiovascular research). The methodology developed for objective consultation with scientists and users is described, and preliminary results presented. Science-push and demand-pull factors emerged clearly, aa did a desire within the scientific community for a number of infrastructural changes to strengthen the future of the field. The study has shown that systematic surveys of users and researchers are capable of detecting coherent views on a number of issues that are relevant to forward planning in research funding agencies. The paper concludes by summarising the limitations of this approach to strategic planning, and presenting some general lessons that may be useful for consideration in other micro-level foresight exercises.     

Perceived Message Effectiveness Predicts Information-Seeking Behavior

This study examined whether perceived message effectiveness (PE) predicted information-seeking behavior in the topical domain of colon cancer. Participants (N = 277) viewed one of three video messages (news, testimonial, and animation) that advocated screening for colon cancer. Information-seeking behavior was operationalized as reading time for a subsequent message about colon cancer. The proposed mediation model successfully reproduced the pattern of data, thereby providing evidence that PE predicts behavior via intention.     

What is the Applied Probability Trust?

This is the third and last in the short series of articles outlining the work of the organisations that sponsor Teaching Statistics.