HIDDEN OPPORTUNITIES IN THE PREDICTION OF COLLEGE GRADES FOR DIFFERENT SUBGROUPS

The purpose of this paper was to examine the problems and opportunities of academic prediction for different ethnic groups. Several recent studies of academic prediction for blacks and whites were reviewed in regard to: 1) the situation in which the data were obtained; 2) the prediction technique employed, and 3) the data distribution likely to give rise to the obtained prediction indices. It was suggested that a total-group regression equation which "benefits" a minority group by overpredicting mean grade may actually be very disadvantageous if accompanied by a large error of estimate. The damage can be produced by precluding selection of the most qualified minority group members and thus lowering the groups' performance. Differential process theory was proposed as a potential source of explanations for differential prediction. It was proposed that alternative strategic approaches to scholastic tasks might alter the covariance of predictor tests with grades. Finally, it was suggested that, under certain circumstances, the patterns of standardized regression weights in the prediction of grades, might suggest group difference in problem-solving strategies.     

USING OLD SOCIOECONOMIC DATA FOR DEFINING NORM GROUPS

Socioeconomic data for communities are often used to define norm samples for tests. Standardization of the tests frequently occurs several years after the socioeconomic data are collected. Are the socioeconomic data sufficiently stable to be useful several years after they have been collected? To help answer this question, correlations were obtained between 1950 and 1960 census data for three socioeconomic variables for a sample of 200 communities. The socioeconomic data for 1950 and 1960 correlated approximately .90, indicating a high degree of relative stability over a 10-year period. It was concluded that old socioeconomic data are useful for defining norm samples.