Sprint and distance running have experienced remarkable performance improvements over the past century. Attempts to forecast running performances share an almost similarly long history but have relied so far on relatively short data series. Here, we compile a comprehensive set of season-best performances for eight Olympically contested running events. With this data set, we conduct (1) an exponential time series analysis and (2) a power-law experience curve analysis to quantify the rate of past performance improvements and to forecast future performances until the year 2100. We find that the sprint and distance running performances of women and men improve exponentially with time and converge at yearly rates of 4% ± 3% and 2% ± 2%, respectively, towards their asymptotic limits. Running performances can also be modelled with the experience curve approach, yielding learning rates of 3% ± 1% and 6% ± 2% for the women's and men's events, respectively. Long-term trends suggest that: (1) women will continue to run 10–20% slower than men, (2) 9.50 s over 100 m dash may only be broken at the end of this century and (3) several middle- and long-distance records may be broken within the next two to three decades. The prospects of witnessing a sub-2 hour marathon before 2100 remain inconclusive. Our results should be interpreted cautiously as forecasting human behaviour is intrinsically uncertain. The future season-best sprint and distance running performances will continue to scatter around the trends identified here and may yield unexpected improvements of standing world records. 相似文献
This paper implements a dynamic (i.e. temporal and local) research design for collaborative digital writing (CDW) in writing assignments in higher education. This research design builds on my paper “Temporality revisited: Dynamicity issues in collaborative digital writing research”, published in this journal (Engerer 2020). The design identifies current state-of-the-art approaches to digital writing and introduces 1) the components of text (the process and products of writing and learning communication), 2) external variables such as learning orientations and group composition, 3) an intermediate layer of time management that is related to organizing the assignment, and 4) the sphere of knowledge construction. The main modification, however, is the addition of four features specifically connected to time-related aspects: 5) micro-analysis, 6) dynamicity, 7) writer relevance and 8) source status. This dynamized research design is applied in a study of writing assignments carried out by the author with students of information science in the spring term of 2016. It is demonstrated how the temporal organization of a CDW process can be visualized and how central concepts such as Task structure, Reference structure and Final target structure are construed, operationalized and dynamically related to each other. Furthermore, a real-time analysis of sequential concept building is provided. The discussion shows that the study integrates all the above elements 1)-8) of a dynamic research design for CDW, although to different degrees. The study presented here can provide a general background for designing research in CDW and can inspire CDW researchers to capture in their research designs the dynamic, time-related features in CDW.
This study examined the relationships among social factors, individual differences, intrinsic motivation, and effort and persistence in the physical education context using cognitive evaluation theory as a framework. Female (n = 201) and male (n = 206) high school students completed measures of motivational climate, teaching style, perceived competence, self-determination, goal orientations, and intrinsic motivation. Teachers rated the students on effort and persistence in the class activities. Hypothesized relationships among the variables were tested using structural equation modeling. Results revealed that perceived competence and goal orientations directly predicted intrinsic motivation and mediated the effects of motivational climate and teaching style on intrinsic motivation. Intrinsic motivation directly predicted effort and persistence. Task goal orientation mediated the effects of learning climate on perceived competence and self-determination. The strongest predictors of intrinsic motivation and effort and persistence were task goal orientation perceived competence, and learning climate. 相似文献
The purpose of this article is to explore the intersectionality of autism and sociocultural factors as well as discuss the complexities associated with appropriate assessment, diagnosis, and intervention. Based on a review of the literature, the authors present a brief history of the emergence of the term autism and highlight factors that have contributed to current concerns about failures to appropriately recognize autism within diverse populations. Referencing extant research as well as professional practice standards, this article examines aspects of autism and intersectionality, and explores some of the associated challenges related to assessment, diagnosis, and intervention. Further, the authors reflect on the critical importance of carefully considering all aspects of a child's identity when engaging in autism assessment and intervention within the school setting. School-based practitioners are provided with guidance for addressing the needs of diverse populations of students with autism. 相似文献
In this article, the Executive Director of FairTest, an organization that has been prominent in promoting Golden Rule-type procedures, explains what he means by the "Golden Rule bias reduction principle" and why he advocates it as a practical reform to help ensure fairer tests. 相似文献