Foresight analysis in research funding agencies: A UK experiment

Strategic planning and priority-setting have become inevitable for UK research funding agencies in the 1990's. But it is an activity which is viewed with some suspicion by the scientific community, in which it is an aphorism that discovery cannot be planned. There is considerable interest therefore, in the promise offoresight analysis as an alternative to conventional strategic planning. Most previous experience with foresight has been at a macro level, with a focus on national direction-setting. But what role can foresight have at amicro level; how can it help individual funding agencies develop strategies for specific scientific fields? This paper explores the problem by describing an experiment, supported jointly by three UK funding agencies, to apply foresight techniques in a review of a single field (cardiovascular research). The methodology developed for objective consultation with scientists and users is described, and preliminary results presented. Science-push and demand-pull factors emerged clearly, aa did a desire within the scientific community for a number of infrastructural changes to strengthen the future of the field. The study has shown that systematic surveys of users and researchers are capable of detecting coherent views on a number of issues that are relevant to forward planning in research funding agencies. The paper concludes by summarising the limitations of this approach to strategic planning, and presenting some general lessons that may be useful for consideration in other micro-level foresight exercises.     

What is the Applied Probability Trust?

This is the third and last in the short series of articles outlining the work of the organisations that sponsor Teaching Statistics.     

The unintended consequences of school inspection: the prevalence of inspection side-effects in Austria,the Czech Republic,England, Ireland,the Netherlands,Sweden, and Switzerland

It has been widely documented that accountability systems, including school inspections, bring with them unintended side effects. These unintended effects are often negative and have the potential to undo the intended positive effects. However the empirical evidence is limited. Through a European comparative study we have had the rare opportunity to collect empirical evidence and study the effects (both intended and unintended) of school inspections (a key system of accountability) in a systematic way, across seven countries. We present the findings of the unintended effects in this paper. Survey self-report responses from school principals in each country, with differing school inspection systems, are analysed to measure the prevalence of these unintended effects and to investigate the part played by pressure to do well in inspections. A key finding is that increasing pressure in school inspection systems is associated with the undesired effect of the narrowing and refocusing of the curriculum and instructional strategies. We also show that a proportion of school principals admit to misrepresenting the school in data sent to the inspectorate and show evidence for formalisation/proceduralisation (excessive focus on records) and ossification (fear of experimentation in teaching), although these factors are less related to changes in pressure.     

Rehabilitation and Non-Rehabilitation Counselor Candidates: Comparison of Interview Behavior and Personality Techniques

This study investigated the hypothesis that conventional role stereotypes of rehabilitation and non-rehabilitation counselors attract counselor candidates who differ in preferred modes of counseling interview behavior and in personality characteristics. Twenty-four rehabilitation counselor candidates and 21 non-rehabilitation counselor candidates enrolled in a beginning counseling course held interviews with a standard client. Candidates' responses were classified employing a content analysis scale. All subjects had taken the 16 PF at the beginning of the course. Results found rehabilitation counselor candidates used informative, questioning, diagnosing, and probing responses more frequently and feeling responses less frequently than did non-rehabilitation candidates. Non-rehabilitation candidates appeared less practical, conservative, and group adherent on the 16 PF than rehabilitation candidates.     

Empowerment and relationships: A classroom model to enhance student motivation

This project focused on the goal of establishing a classroom model of motivation in which the source of student motivation is based on internal mechanisms or structures, along with the establishment of greater self-regulatory opportunities for students, and which results in greater student empowerment and motivation. One-hundred current elementary and secondary teachers and 100 university preservice teacher education students completed a 40-item Likert-type questionnaire that focused on four classroom dimensions of affirmation, rejection, student empowerment and teacher control. The results of this project suggested that, although veteran and preservice teachers agreed on the need for teacher control in the classroom, there was less agreement about their perceptions of the need to create a classroom environment of positive affirmation and student empowerment. Implications for future research and the need for creating an affirming, empowering, motivational classroom environment are discussed in light of the limitations for teachers and schools to encourage these constructs associated with recent federal legislative policies.     

Factors affecting rats’ location during conditioned suppression training

If freezing underlies barpress conditioned suppression, then it seems odd that auditory cues paired with shock evoke more freezing than do visual cues, yet evoke similar suppression. Bevins and Ayres (1992) found that auditory and visual cues also evoked similar withdrawal from the bar and dipper areas and suggested that such withdrawal could explain the similar suppression. Seeking to understand that withdrawal, we found evidence in the present study that it was due either to adventitious punishment or to place-aversion learning. The cue for shock seemed to set the occasion for such learning. For example, we found that, as training progressed, rats’ tendency to leave the bar area during the cue first increased, then decreased, then increased again, reflecting, presumably, shock occurrence first inside, then outside, then inside the bar area again. Despite these changes in the rats’ location, barpress suppression remained stable, implying that leaving the bar area, though sufficient for barpress suppression, is unnecessary.