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In this article, I explore a Bayesian approach to avalanche decision-making. I motivate this perspective by highlighting a version of the base-rate fallacy and show that a similar pattern applies to decision-making in avalanche-terrain. I then draw out three theoretical lessons from adopting a Bayesian approach and discuss these lessons critically. Lastly, I highlight a number of challenges for avalanche educators when incorporating the Bayesian perspective in their curriculum.  相似文献   
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Some rhesus monkey (Macaca mulatta) infants have a "despair" or depression-like response to mother-infant separation, while others do not. The presumed interrelation between early rearing conditions and the neurobiological status of the infant that might lead to increased risk for despair is not understood. In this study, the characteristics of the "mother" were controlled by rearing infant rhesus monkeys with their biological mothers, or with inanimate mothers. Behavioral data were collected before and after separation at 6-7 months of age. The neurobiological status of the infants was evaluated by measuring the concentration of norepinephrine, its major metabolite, and the metabolites of dopamine and serotonin in cerebrospinal fluid. The results suggest that despair is not simply a behavioral response to separation. Instead, despair may reflect the inability to cope with the separation environment. Coping with the separation environment appears to depend on neurobiological and behavioral characteristics of the infant that are related to, if not determined by, characteristics of the mother.  相似文献   
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Talent identification (TID) and talent development (TDE) programmes in track sprint cycling use ergometer- and track-based tests to select junior athletes and assess their development. The purpose of this study was to assess which tests are best at monitoring TID and TDE. Ten male participants (16.2 ± 1.1 year; 178.5 ± 6.0 cm and 73.6 ± 7.6 kg) were selected into the national TID squad based on initial testing. These tests consisted of two 6-s maximal sprints on a custom-built ergometer and 4 maximal track-based tests (2 rolling and 2 standing starts) using 2 gear ratios. Magnitude-based inferences and correlation coefficients assessed changes following a 3-month TDE programme. Training elicited meaningful improvements (80–100% likely) in all ergometer parameters. The standing and rolling small gear, track-based effort times were likely and very likely (3.2 ± 2.4% and 3.3 ± 1.9%, respectively) improved by training. Stronger correlations between ergometer- and track-based measures were very likely following training. Ergometer-based testing provides a more sensitive tool than track-based testing to monitor changes in neuromuscular function during the early stages of TDE. However, track-based testing can indicate skill-based improvements in performance when interpreted with ergometer testing. In combination, these tests provide information on overall talent development.  相似文献   
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This study evaluated Gregoire’s (2003) Cognitive–Affective Conceptual Change model (CAMCC) for predicting and assessing conceptual change in science teachers engaged in a long-term professional development project set in a large school district in the southwestern United States. A multiple case study method with data from three teacher participants was used to understand the process of integrating and applying a reform message of inquiry based science teaching. Data sources included: responses to example teaching scenarios, reflective essays, lesson plans, classroom observations, and action research projects. Findings show that the CAMCC functioned well in predicting how these teachers made decisions that impacted how they processed the reform message. When the reform message was communicated in such a way as to initiate stress appraisal, conceptual change occurred, producing changes in classroom practice. If the reform message did not initiate stress appraisal, teachers rejected the professional development message and developed heuristic responses. In order to further research and improve practice, propositions for assessments related to the CAMCC are provided.  相似文献   
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