Chaos theory, informational needs, and natural disasters

This study applies chaos theory to a system-wide analysis of crisis communication in a natural disaster. Specifically, we analyze crisis communication during the 1997 Red River Valley flood in Minnesota and North Dakota. This flood, among the worst in modern American history, consumed entire metropolitan areas, displacing thousands of people. The conditions and decisions leading to the disaster, and the subsequent reactions are retraced. Communication related to river crest predictions (fractals), the shock at the magnitude of the crisis (cosmology episode), novel forms of reorganizing (self-organization), and agencies that aided in establishing a renewed order (strange attractors) are evaluated. Ultimately, we argue that preexisting sensemaking structures favoring rationalized, traditional views of a complex system led officials to make inappropriately unequivocal predictions and ultimately diminished the effectiveness of the region's crisis communication and planning.     

明代安徽自然灾害及灾荒救治

在明代277年中,江淮大地发生过水灾、旱灾、风灾、雹灾、雪灾、霜冻、雷击、蝗灾、震灾等各类灾害,灾害频率不仅高于全国同期,而且也比明代以前的安徽高得多。为应对各种自然灾害,明王朝采取了各种救灾措施,不论是消极的禳灾之举,还是积极的治灾之策,对纾缓灾情、救济灾民起到了一定的作用。这些灾荒救治举措对当今安徽防灾减灾事业不无启迪之处。     

明代安徽自然灾害及灾荒救治

在明代277年中,江淮大地发生过水灾、旱灾、风灾、雹灾、雪灾、霜冻、雷击、蝗灾、震灾等各类灾害,灾害频率不仅高于全国同期,而且也比明代以前的安徽高得多。为应对各种自然灾害,明王朝采取了各种救灾措施,不论是消极的禳灾之举,还是积极的治灾之策,对纾缓灾情、救济灾民起到了一定的作用。这些灾荒救治举措对当今安徽防灾减灾事业不无启迪之处。     

遥感技术在大同矿区地质灾害调查中的应用

煤矿是我国国民经济的支柱产业之一。而采矿引起的一系列地质灾害不仅威胁矿区安全,而且影响和制约着经济的发展,从而引发一系列社会问题和矛盾。大同地区最主要的矿山地质灾害是以煤矿开采引发的地面塌陷。而遥感作为信息获取的快速、有效的工具,具有宏观性好、更新周期快、人为因素干扰小等优点,可以直接为地质灾害监测的决策者提供丰富的客观数据,还可以通过推理、演绎和归纳等科学方法,提炼出需要的科学数据,这样不仅丰富了地质灾害监测决策的技术手段,还大大提高了决策的效率。     

Praying for (the) Community: Disasters,Ritual and Solidarity in the Eighteenth-Century Dutch Republic

ABSTRACT

Organised in the wake of disasters, early modern emergency rituals were intended to persuade God to waive further punishment. However, this article shows that these rituals were as much about communities as about God. Based on a close reading of prayer day letters, sermons, and instruction manuals from the eighteenth-century Dutch Republic, it proposes a Durkheimian interpretation of the rituals. For a day, participants collectively lived through an emotional disaster experience. This experience was then converted into (financial) solidarity with the victims.     

汶川地震对档案馆建筑安全设计的启示

四川省汶川县发生的强烈地震灾害．给人民群众的生命财产造成严重损失。这给档案馆建筑安全设计带来了启示：档案馆防灾必须坚持一定的原则．在重视应急预案的同时．还要从建筑本身入手。从提高抗震标准、进行科学选址、加大开放空间和优化设计方案等方面入手．利用建筑本身的防灾能力防止或减弱灾害对档案馆的威胁．从建筑设计上尽最大可能保证档案的完整与安全．     

民国时期安徽淮河流域自然灾害的社会影响

民国时期安徽淮河流域自然灾害十分频繁,高频率的自然灾害对该地区经济社会带来了极大地影响,致使人口大量减少、大规模迁移以及灾民生活质量的大幅下降;社会经济日趋崩溃;濒于绝境的灾民为了生存不得不起而抗争,并严重影响了相对稳定的社会秩序。     

关于日本防震减灾法律体系的研究及其启示

日本为了应对频繁发生的地震灾害,建立起了比较完善的防震减灾法律体系,在防灾减灾中发挥了明显的作用.中国应当借鉴和参考日本经验,完善和细化我国的防震减灾法律体系,使其具备可操作性.另外,还应当通过立法加强防灾知识的普及,大力开展防灾训练,并建立综合性的防灾行政体系,确保防灾救灾工作的有序进行.     

论重大自然灾害灾后重建的秩序维度——以汶川、玉树、舟曲为例

秩序是自然界、社会进程以及思想精神层面中存在某种程度的协调性、连续性和确定性。重大自然灾害是一场秩序大地震：它动摇和颠覆了灾区的自然秩序、社会秩序与精神秩序。因此,灾后重建不仅仅是物质家园的重建,更重要的是秩序的重建。秩序的重建使人与自然关系重新和谐、人与人关系重新协调、人与自我关系重获意义     

Chaos theory,informational needs,and natural disasters

This study applies chaos theory to a system-wide analysis of crisis communication in a natural disaster. Specifically, we analyze crisis communication during the 1997 Red River Valley flood in Minnesota and North Dakota. This flood, among the worst in modern American history, consumed entire metropolitan areas, displacing thousands of people. The conditions and decisions leading to the disaster, and the subsequent reactions are retraced. Communication related to river crest predictions (fractals), the shock at the magnitude of the crisis (cosmology episode), novel forms of reorganizing (self-organization), and agencies that aided in establishing a renewed order (strange attractors) are evaluated. Ultimately, we argue that preexisting sensemaking structures favoring rationalized, traditional views of a complex system led officials to make inappropriately unequivocal predictions and ultimately diminished the effectiveness of the region's crisis communication and planning.