Relative age and birthplace effect in Japanese professional sports: a quantitative evaluation using a Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model

Relative age effect (RAE) in sports has been well documented. Recent studies investigate the effect of birthplace in addition to the RAE. The first objective of this study was to show the magnitude of the RAE in two major professional sports in Japan, baseball and soccer. Second, we examined the birthplace effect and compared its magnitude with that of the RAE. The effect sizes were estimated using a Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model with the number of players as dependent variable. The RAEs were 9.0% and 7.7% per month for soccer and baseball, respectively. These estimates imply that children born in the first month of a school year have about three times greater chance of becoming a professional player than those born in the last month of the year. Over half of the difference in likelihoods of becoming a professional player between birthplaces was accounted for by weather conditions, with the likelihood decreasing by 1% per snow day. An effect of population size was not detected in the data. By investigating different samples, we demonstrated that using quarterly data leads to underestimation and that the age range of sampled athletes should be set carefully.     

带干扰的多险种破产模型的研究

对带随机干扰因素的多类索赔模型的破产问题进行了研究,得出轻尾随机变量的风险和过程Lundberg指数,应用鞅论方法,获得了多险种的破产概率公式.     

关于正则运动方程完全对称化的问题

正则运动方程的两组(或个)式子原本只是基本对称,而不是完全对称.较好的完全对称方案,前人早已设计好了.本文将介绍两种方案,一种是采用矩阵,将正则运动方程的两组整合为一组,另一种是采用泊松(Poisson)括号,将其完全对称化.     

上次调和函数

调和函数在理论和实践中有着十分重要的作用。本文提出了一类介于解析函数和调和函数之间的函数，称为上次调和函数，并且讨论了上次调和函数的一些性质和特征。     

泊松过程两种定义等价性证明

随机过程教材中关于泊松过程的定义有两种形式,但教材对其等价性要么没有证明,要么只给出了证明的简单思路。本文给出了这两种定义等价性的详细证明过程。     

负二项分布的两个不同定义

给出了负二项分布的两个不同定义,给出了两类负二项随机变量的期望、方差与矩母函数。从直观上对这两类负二项随机变量做了描述。     

概率中伯努利试验问题的解决策略

伯努利试验是独立重复试验中十分重要的一个类型,针对试验所呈现出的参数特点以及试验所针对的问题,我们要选取不同的公式来解决它.文章简要介绍了五种解决这类问题的策略.     

具有周期正交拟小波基空间的逼近性质

介绍周期正交拟小波函数空间并用它来讨论对Poisson积分的逼近.     

[0,2π]上Bochner可积函数和平均收敛定理

本文讨论[0,2π]上Bochner可积函数的若干性质,并在p≥ 1时推广平均收敛定理.