Inference Based on the Best-Fitting Model Can Contribute to the Replication Crisis: Assessing Model Selection Uncertainty Using a Bootstrap Approach

Inferences and conclusions drawn from model fitting analyses are commonly based on a single “best fitting” model. If model selection and inference are carried out using the same data model selection, uncertainty is ignored. We illustrate the Type I error inflation that can result from using the same data for model selection and inference, and we then propose a simple bootstrap-based approach to quantify model selection uncertainty in terms of model selection rates. A selection rate can be interpreted as an estimate of the replication probability of a fitted model. The benefits of bootstrapping model selection uncertainty are demonstrated in growth mixture analyses of data from the National Longitudinal Study of Youth, and a 2-group measurement invariance analysis of the Holzinger–Swineford data.     

无穷大开簇上构型出现次数的强大数律和中心极限定理(英文)

考虑定义在整点格网Ld上的参数为p的上临界Bernoulli渗流,研究无穷大开簇上构型的发生情况.用Λn表示一个给定的构型P在限制于框B(n)=[-n,n]d中的无穷大开簇上发生的次数,得到了关于Λn的强大数律和中心极限定理.     

Confidence Intervals for a Semiparametric Approach to Modeling Nonlinear Relations among Latent Variables

Compared to parametric models, nonparametric and semiparametric approaches to modeling nonlinearity between latent variables have the advantage of recovering global relationships of unknown functional form. Bauer (2005) Bauer, D. J. 2005. A semiparametric approach to modeling nonlinear relations among latent variables. Structural Equation Modeling, 12: 513–535. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar] proposed an indirect application of finite mixtures of structural equation models where latent components are estimated in the service of more flexibly recovering characteristics of the latent aggregate regression function. This article develops and evaluates delta method and parametric bootstrap approaches for obtaining approximate confidence intervals for Bauer's semiparametric approach to modeling latent nonlinear functions. Coverage rates of these approximate point-wise confidence intervals or nonsimultaneous confidence bands are evaluated by Monte Carlo and recommendations for their use are suggested.     

思茅河流域农村生活污水治理的可行模式

结合思茅河流域自然、社会和经济条件以及农村生活污水特点,出较分析了不同分散型污水处理技术的优缺点,得出人工湿地和土地渗滤处理技术比较适合于目前思茅河流域农村生活污水处理。     

基于bootstrap组合神经网络的聚丙烯熔融指数预报

对熔融指数准确可靠的预报在聚丙烯生产中具有至关重要的作用,它能更有效的指导生产过程,进而提高聚丙烯生产的经济效益。神经网络被用来建立初始的熔融指数预报模型,但是单一的神经网络在结构上具有随机性。通过训练一批预报误差小同时结构差异大的神经网络作为子网络,再将它们组合起来得到bootstrap组合神经网络,基于此建立起了最优熔融指数预报模型。通过对实际聚丙烯生产过程中的历史数据的研究,表明该模型的预报精度高、可靠性强,有望在实际工业中得到广泛应用。     

共享心智模式、组织学习空间与创新绩效关系的研究

构建共享心智模式,提高创新绩效,是企业获得持续竞争优势的关键。以组织学习空间为中介变量,构建共享心智模式对创新绩效作用机制的理论分析框架。在此基础上,使用基于Bootstrap的结构方程模型对已构建的理论分析框架进行实证分析。实证结果表明：共享心智模式对创新绩效的提高具有显著的直接推动作用;组织学习空间在共享心智模式与创新绩效关系间起部分中介作用。实证结论将为进一步通过完善共享心智模式,提高自身紧密度,拓展组织学习知识面,提高组织创新绩效提供理论依据和实践借鉴。     

系统引导型病毒机理特征及最佳根治方法

系统引导型病毒是在系统引导加载过程中进入系统中，获得对系统的控制权。其传染性强，危害大，难以根除。本文根据系统引导型病毒机理及特征，从防范的角度出发，找到了根治系统引导型病毒的最佳方法。     

Studying School Architecture: some reflections

Abstract

This article reports on the findings of an investigation in which 30 secondary schools rated the priority being given to and the likely impact on teaching and learning of a selection of 23 issues currently on the agenda for school improvement. Results are considered for the whole sample, and according to the role of respondents and school context. Schools are giving high priority to the implementation of national policies and school‐generated initiatives directed at improved classroom practice. However, the perceived impact of externally generated change is less than that of change for which school staff feel a sense of ownership. Policies directed at a consideration of resource issues, professional development and salary changes are accorded low priority and are not considered to have a marked impact on teaching and learning. There is a potential for frustration and loss of morale when policies that are thought to be of limited value within schools require time and sometimes extensive consideration. The article's conclusions for policy‐makers are directed at minimising this risk.     

An Experiment with Multiple Choice Vocabulary Tests Constructed by two Different Procedures

Marsh and Hau (1996) based the assertion that parsimony is not always desirable when assessing model fit on a particular counterexample drawn from Marsh's previous research. This counterexample is neither general nor valid enough to support such a thesis. More specifically, the counterexample signals an oversight of extant, stochastic models justifying correlated uniquenesses, namely, moving-average and autoregressive moving-average models. Such models provide theoretically plausible motives for a priori specification of error correlations. In fact, when uniquenesses are correlated, stochastic models other than the conventional simplex and quasi-simplex models must be tested before positive identification of the process is possible (Sivo, 1997). In short, exchanging the mechanistic penalties for model complexity for the mechanistic specification of untenable measurement-error covariances offers no solution. Parsimony has not been dismissed based on the argument Marsh and Hau presented concerning longitudinal data.     

两种交互式信息传播网络的传播模型比较研究

 对中国产业集群网论坛用户提问与回答的关系数据,建立了一个以自我中心,包括832个用户的知识传播网络模型。将该传播网络的传播模型与Watts通过Email方式建立的信息传递网络模型相比较。结合经典的传染模型和渗流模型及这两种信息传播网络的特点给出了相应的传播模型。不同的传播模型有不同的提高信息传播广度的方法：基于社会网络的信息传播不仅要提高信息传递者的激情而且要提高社会网的连通性,基于论坛回复关系的信息传播网络只需提高用户的回复激情就可扩大信息传播的广度。同时还给出了两种方式的难易程度,根据难易程度建议依据信息的不同性质在不同的网络中进行传播。