灰色预测法在情报研究中的应用研究综述

[目的/意义] 灰色预测法可有效处理情报研究中广泛存在的小样本数据，通过对灰色预测法在情报研究中的应用情况进行梳理，总结其在应用过程中存在的不足，为灰色预测法在情报研究中的进一步应用提供参考。[方法/过程] 通过综述情报研究中涉及灰色预测法的相关文献，从数据选取、模型构建和解决的问题等方面对情报研究中灰色预测法的应用进行概述，总结当前情报研究中灰色预测法的应用所存在的问题，并提出改进建议。[结果/结论] 在方法应用上，已有研究主要采用数列灰预测，且模型集中在单变量灰色预测模型，根据预测对象不同，灰色预测法已经在包括期刊分析、图书馆运行管理、热点主题分析及科研机构评价方面得到了很好的应用，未来可根据预测对象特点及研究目标尝试不同的灰色预测方法，扩宽灰色预测法在其他方面的情报研究问题中的应用。     

Quality flaw prediction in Spanish Wikipedia: A case of study with verifiability flaws

In this work, we present the first quality flaw prediction study for articles containing the two most frequent verifiability flaws in Spanish Wikipedia: articles which do not cite any references or sources at all (denominated Unreferenced) and articles that need additional citations for verification (so-called Refimprove). Based on the underlying characteristics of each flaw, different state-of-the-art approaches were evaluated. For articles not citing any references, a well-established rule-based approach was evaluated and interesting findings show that some of them suffer from Refimprove flaw instead. Likewise, for articles that need additional citations for verification, the well-known PU learning and one-class classification approaches were evaluated. Besides, new methods were compared and a new feature was also proposed to model this latter flaw. The results showed that new methods such as under-bagged decision trees with sum or majority voting rules, biased-SVM, and centroid-based balanced SVM, perform best in comparison with the ones previously published.     

Cross-company customer churn prediction in telecommunication: A comparison of data transformation methods

Cross-Company Churn Prediction (CCCP) is a domain of research where one company (target) is lacking enough data and can use data from another company (source) to predict customer churn successfully. To support CCCP, the cross-company data is usually transformed to a set of similar normal distribution of target company data prior to building a CCCP model. However, it is still unclear which data transformation method is most effective in CCCP. Also, the impact of data transformation methods on CCCP model performance using different classifiers have not been comprehensively explored in the telecommunication sector. In this study, we devised a model for CCCP using data transformation methods (i.e., log, z-score, rank and box-cox) and presented not only an extensive comparison to validate the impact of these transformation methods in CCCP, but also evaluated the performance of underlying baseline classifiers (i.e., Naive Bayes (NB), K-Nearest Neighbour (KNN), Gradient Boosted Tree (GBT), Single Rule Induction (SRI) and Deep learner Neural net (DP)) for customer churn prediction in telecommunication sector using the above mentioned data transformation methods. We performed experiments on publicly available datasets related to the telecommunication sector. The results demonstrated that most of the data transformation methods (e.g., log, rank, and box-cox) improve the performance of CCCP significantly. However, the Z-Score data transformation method could not achieve better results as compared to the rest of the data transformation methods in this study. Moreover, it is also investigated that the CCCP model based on NB outperform on transformed data and DP, KNN and GBT performed on the average, while SRI classifier did not show significant results in term of the commonly used evaluation measures (i.e., probability of detection, probability of false alarm, area under the curve and g-mean).     

试论田径运动中的速度

采用生物力学原理分析了田径运动成绩与运动这间的关系。认为田径运动成绩虽然表现在时间、高度和远度上，但实质是个速度问题。只有获得高的运动速度，才能有高水平的运动成绩。并进一步总结出与成绩关系最为紧密的3种速度，即跑的后蹬速度，起跳速度和器械出手速度。分析了速度产生的原因以及创造和保持高速度运动的条件。     

现代德国体育演变及其对我国学校体育发展的启示

详细分析了德国学校体育的发展历程,将其发展划分为三个阶段:理论不完备阶段,哲学性的人类学阶段和目的论形成及体育课程理论结构化阶段,并对其体育课程理论结构化阶段的理论与课程体系进行了深入探讨。对于该阶段对于我国学校体育借鉴作用作了深入分析。     

谈谈短跑训练的几点体会

根据少年短跑运动员生长发育和项目特点，探讨了以短跑技术为中心的全面身体训练，发展步长、步频、速度耐力，掌握跑的放松技能，心理训练，合理的营养等。     

春秋战国时期军队的跑跳训练

在冷兵器时代，军队行军强调速度对作战胜负具有极为重要作用。因此，我国古代兵家十分重视加强对军队的体能训练。跑跳项目就是当时训练提高体能的重要手段，在军事理论和军事体育实践中积累了宝贵经验。春秋战国时期军队的跑跳训练便是冷兵器时代军队体能训练的典型。     

人体上下肢长预测方法的研究与应用

人体生长发育过程中，具有非等比性和向心律的特点，在生长发育结束以前测评出的形态比例关系，不能直接说明成熟后的情况。通过对7～18岁儿童少年发育状况的调研，提出了人体上下肢长与身高比例关系的预测方法。     

关于影响蔡民十项全能主要因素的分析及成绩的预测研究

应用灰色系统对十项全能的影响因素进行了分析,找出了影响其成绩变化的优势因素.并运用灰色动态模型进行了近期和短期的预测,结果证明这一方法对十项成绩的预测准确性较好,残差一般为±0.25% .     

民国时期社会风俗现代转型的二重性特征

民国时期新旧递嬗、方生方死的持续过渡型社会形态,铸就了此期风俗文化现代转型鲜明的二重性特征:在中西新旧风俗文化的相互关系上,新旧纷陈的杂糅性、过渡性与中西会通、迎新纳异的兼容性、开放性并存;在移风易俗的力度、广度上,较前而言的深入性、广泛性与此期仍甚显著的迟滞性、不平衡性并存;在风俗变迁的社会效应上,推动社会文化发展的进步性与尚奢、崇洋之风日益滋长的负面性兼而有之。