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Educational Forecasting at the University of Akron
Authors:D J Guzzetta
Institution:The University of Akron
Abstract:The purpose of this study was to examine the power of quality of learning experience (QLE) indicators in predicting juniors’ and seniors’ persistence and attrition and to identify the relative salience of each of the QLE components in explaining persistence. Two different models were defined and assessed: the compensatory model and the multiple hurdles model. The models were tested using logistic regression and discriminant analysis. The major findings of the study were: (a) QLE indicators played a significant role in predicting juniors’ and seniors’ persistence. The R2 coefficients for the compensatory and multiple hurdles models were 0.32 and 0.37, respectively, whereas the percentages of correct classifications were 85% and 88%. (b) The predictability and classification power were weaker for the compensatory model and stronger for the multiple hurdles framework. (c) The three dominant predictors of juniors’ and seniors’ persistence were student-faculty contact, students’ involvement in their academic program, and the content of that program. The implications of this study are explored.
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