Estimating the diffusion models of crisis information in micro blog |
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| Authors: | Jiuchang Wei Bing Bu Liang Liang |
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| Institution: | 1. School of Management, University of Science and Technology of China, No. 96, JinZhai Road Baohe District, Hefei, Anhui 230026, PR China;2. State Key Laboratory of Fire Science, University of Science and Technology of China, PR China;1. Center of Econometric Analysis and Forecasting, Dongbei University of Finance & Economics, Dalian 116025, China;2. School of Mathematics and Quantitative Ecomonics, Dongbei University of Finance & Economics, Dalian 116025, China;3. Department of Decision Sciences and Managerial Economics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin NT, Hong Kong;1. Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań, Poland;2. West Pomeranian University of Technology in Szczecin, Poland;1. School of Information System and Management, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha, 410073, China;2. Institute of Computer Science, University of Rostock, Albert Einstein Str. 22, Rostock, 18059, Germany;1. School of Management, Harbin Institute of Technology, 92 West Dazhi Street, Harbin, China;2. School of Hotel, Restaurant and Tourism Management, University of South Carolina, 701 Assembly Street, Columbia, South Carolina 29208, USA |
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| Abstract: | The study tries to construct the diffusion models of crisis information in micro blog. We propose three information release patterns in micro blog according to the duration of crisis information released, namely concentrated release, continuous release, and pulse release. Based on Logistic function, three respective diffusion models are constructed. We choose three crisis events to test the diffusion models using the variables of the number of micro blogs with the crisis information (NMCI) and the increment of NMCI. The estimate results show that the diffusion of crisis information in micro blogs can be described by Logistic function, and the growth curve of NMCI is S-shaped. |
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