商渔船碰撞预警模型

为找出浙江沿海商渔船碰撞事故的风险源，根据2008—2013年浙江沿海商渔船碰撞事故的统计资料，梳理出事故的6类原因，归纳其共性特点.将碰撞前后的商船、渔船、环境视为稳定的系统，基于信息熵理论，通过分析事故中的增熵和负熵因素定义预警系统的事故临界点，建立商渔船避碰的预警模型.结合浙江沿海商渔船碰撞事故进行实证分析，得出结论：商渔船碰撞预警系统的事故临界点熵值为0.177；达到该值之前相关船舶应采取避碰措施.该方法可为维持商渔船良好的通航秩序提供参考.

Early warning model of collision between merchant ships and fishing vessels

To find out risk sources of collision accidents between merchant ships and fishing vessels in Zhejiang coastal waters, six classes of reasons are sorted out and common features are summarized according to the statistical data of collision between merchant ships and fishing vessels in Zhejiang coastal waters in 2008 2013. Merchant ships, fishing vessels and environment before and after collision are considered as a stable system. Based on the theory of information entropy, the factors resulting in the increase and decrease of entropy are analyzed to define the critical point of collision accidents in the early warning system, and then an early warning model of collision between merchant ships and fishing vessels is built. Through the example analysis on collision accidents between merchant ships and fishing vessels in Zhejiang coastal waters, the conclusion is the following: in the early warning system, the entropy of the critical point of collision accidents between merchant ships and fishing vessels is 0.177; before reaching this number, the related ships should take some measures to avoid collision. This method can provide reference for merchant ships and fishing vessels keeping good navigation order.