相对资源承载力模型的改进及其实证分析

对比区域相对资源人口与经济承载力理论值与实际人口和经济量,有助于了解案例区相对于参照区的发展状态,并能为合理调控案例区人口和经济规模以及确定其未来开发策略提供指导性认识.相对资源承载力测算普遍采用加权线性和模型,其弊端主要在于过多的权重选择和对不同类型资源之间匹配关系的忽视影响了测算的准确性和科学性.基于此对传统相对资源承载力模型进行了改进,提出了几何相对资源承栽力模型,并利用新模型,以全国为参照区,对湖北省1978年～2006年相对资源承栽力进行了实证分析.研究表明,目前湖北省正处于人口超载,经济发展不足的阶段,经济发展不足制约了对人口的容纳能力,未来应成为国家重点开发的省份和经济活动集聚的地区之一.

Model Modification and Empirical Analysis of the Relative Carrying Capacity of Resources

Faced with a population explosion and limited resources, it is a problem for China to reasonably distribute human activity across heterogeneous areas, so regional carrying capacity is always a matter of popular concern. This paper systematically reviews research related to the relative carrying capacity of resources. We suggest that relative carrying capacity is not an appropriate method for appraising regional sustainability, but a sound way for coordinating spatial location and flows of population and economy. With a model of relative carrying capacity of resources, the theoretical population and GDP carrying capacity of a region can be calculated. By comparing the theoretical number with the actual data on population and GDP, the relative development state of the region can be clearly shown, which is helpful for selecting and adapting future development policies. Despite being the most popular computing method of relative carrying capacity of resources, the Weighted Linear Sum Model is defective in terms of weight selection and the failure to match different resources, which undermines the accuracy of the calculation. This paper presents a Geometric Model of relative carrying capacity based on a modification of the Weighted Linear Sum Model, which is suitable for appraisal of regions which are well-matched in terms of resources. According to the thinking on Main Functional Zones and the requirements for both population and economic carrying capacity, the possible development states of a research region can be summarized in 9 scenarios. Different scenarios require different development policies. Using the new model, we empirically analyzed population and economic relative carrying capacity of resources in Hubei Province from 1978 to 2006. The results indicated that the population in Hubei Province is overloaded while the economic carrying capacity is abundant relative to the whole country because slow economic development restricts the population carrying capacity. In the future, Hubei Province should become a core zone for development and economic conglomeration. There are still some limitations in recent research on the relative carrying capacity model, such as too much attention on water and land resource carrying capacity, and neglect of other natural resources such as energy. Also, there is more research on single resources but not much coupled research on multiple resources. These weak points should be addressed in future model modifications.