国际油价变化及未来趋势判断

自进入石油时代以来,世界各国经济便开始受到油价波动的巨大挑战。本文的研究表明:1965年-2000年期间,国际油价的波动始终带有明显的政治倾向,而主导这一时期油价波动的是发达国家与石油输出组织国家。发生于1973年的中东十月战争、1979年的伊朗革命和1990年的伊拉克入侵科威特正是引发这一时期原油价格大幅上升的三次关键事件。进入21世纪后,国际油价变动开始从政治主导指向转变为经济主导指向,传统的出口与进口二元国际市场结构也被石油出口国、老牌与新兴石油进口国的"三足鼎立"格局所取代,从而引发了一场新的市场利益博弈。1965年-2000年期间,全球石油消费需求增长的近70%来自老牌石油进口国。然而自2001年以来,全球石油消费需求增长的95%则自新兴石油进口国。与此同时,老牌石油进口国需求下降国家数量也从2003年不足10个上升至2008年的17个。随着国际石油市场博弈程度和全球经济发展环境的变化,投机行为最终占据了油价机制的主导地位。其结果造成现行油价高出正常油价1~2倍以上,标志着国际油价进入了高风险期。在未来相当长时期内,石油输出国、老牌与新兴石油进口国的市场格局不会发生根本性变化。投机成分主导下的风险机制将使世界油价继续处在一个高风险阶段。所不同者,经历了此次全球金融危机后,石油市场的消费格局将发生相应变化。此种情况下,国际油价很可能呈现一个相对稳定状态。据此得出的判断是:未来国际油价有可能保持在100美元/桶的范围(按2008年价格计算),其价格变幅大体保持在(80~120)美元/桶之间。作为世界上最大的新兴石油进口国,中国应认真对待这一种变化。

A Fluctuated International Crude Oil Price and Its Perspective

Soon after the beginning of the petroleum times, economic development for many countries has to be faced with a great challenge from a fluctuated crude oil prices. The authors revealed the facts as follows. Between 1965 and 2000, a key factor dominating the change of crude oil price in the whole world came mainly from the politic conflicts between the advanced countries or the traditional oil-importer and the organization of oil exporters. Yom Kippur War or October War in 1973, Islamic Revolution in 1979, and Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990 were the best examples in explanting the acutely soaring crude oil prices in the whole world. This situation, however, has been changed since the very beginning of the 21st century when the key factor dominating the oil price floating in the world has transformed from political to economic reasons when the market game transformed from a traditional binary structure constituted only by exporters and importers to a new ternary one made up by the oil exporters, the old importers (the developed countries), and the newly emerging importers (the newly developing countries). In fact, demand growth has been much higher in the developing world than that in the developed one since 2001. According to BP statistics, there had about 95% of the demand growth of the whole world contributed by the developing countries during the period 2001-2008, compared with that of only 30% during the period of 1965-2000. In the meantime, there were 17 old importers or developed countries which witnessed their shrinking in demand in 2008, compared with only 10 in 2003. Along with such a change, the world oil market has been becoming an ideal place for speculation businesses. Soon after reached a low point in 1999 of $17 per barrel (all prices are in US$ per barrel) with the Asian Financial Crisis, which reduced demand, crude oil prices increased rapidly, more than doubling by September 2000 to $35, and steadily increased to $40-50 in 2004. In 2005, crude oil price surged to a record high above $60, and rose above $90 in 2007. Eventually, the price broke through $110 in the early of 2008 and set its new record of over $147 just forth months later. However, the global financial crisis has cooled down the speculation in the world oil market, and the prices have stubbornly remained between $70-80 in 2010. It is estimated that the crude oil prices could stay at $80-120 per barrel for the next 10 years if a weaker US dollar and a more stable ternary structure of the world oil market could be expected successfully. It is, therefore, time for China, the biggest newly emerging oil-importer in the world and being thirsty for more foreign oil supply, to focus on this change seriously in order to protect its national interests in the future.