Foresight analysis in research funding agencies: A UK experiment

Strategic planning and priority-setting have become inevitable for UK research funding agencies in the 1990's. But it is an activity which is viewed with some suspicion by the scientific community, in which it is an aphorism that discovery cannot be planned. There is considerable interest therefore, in the promise offoresight analysis as an alternative to conventional strategic planning. Most previous experience with foresight has been at a macro level, with a focus on national direction-setting. But what role can foresight have at amicro level; how can it help individual funding agencies develop strategies for specific scientific fields? This paper explores the problem by describing an experiment, supported jointly by three UK funding agencies, to apply foresight techniques in a review of a single field (cardiovascular research). The methodology developed for objective consultation with scientists and users is described, and preliminary results presented. Science-push and demand-pull factors emerged clearly, aa did a desire within the scientific community for a number of infrastructural changes to strengthen the future of the field. The study has shown that systematic surveys of users and researchers are capable of detecting coherent views on a number of issues that are relevant to forward planning in research funding agencies. The paper concludes by summarising the limitations of this approach to strategic planning, and presenting some general lessons that may be useful for consideration in other micro-level foresight exercises.