创新能力、创新溢出对经济增长的动态影响研究

技术创新对经济发展有重要的影响，技术创新与经济发展的关系也得到学术界和产业界的重视。大多数学者关注的是技术创新对经济发展的影响机制，但是关于两者之间动态关系的研究却较少。本研究利用计量方法分析北京1999-2016年的数据，发现创新能力和创新溢出对经济的影响都是正向的，且技术创新对经济的正向影响在技术出现的2年内缓慢增长，然后稳定在一定的比例，这种影响呈现6年一个小周期的特点。创新溢出对经济增长的影响在10年以内都是处于缓慢增长的状态。最后，文章基于实证研究结论提出了政策建议和措施。

Research on the Dynamic Impact of Innovation Capabilities and Innovation Spillovers on Economic Growth: Evidence from Beijing

Technological innovation has an important impact on the economy, and the relationship between technological innovation and economic development has also been valued by the academic community and industry. However, there is less research on the dynamic relationship between technological innovation and economic development. This study used a metrology method to analyze data from Beijing for the past 18 years and found that the impact of innovative ability and innovation spillovers on the economy is positive, and the impact of technological innovation on the economy grows slowly within 2 years technology appearing and then stabilizes at a certain percentage, presenting the characteristics that a small period every six years. The impact of innovation spillovers on economic growth is slowly growing within 10 years. Finally, based on the conclusion of empirical study, this paper proposes some policy recommendations and measures.