基于Z-number模糊数的MIS开发项目缓冲区研究

为提高MIS开发项目管理的效率,同时优化项目缓冲的估算精度,文章在工期估计方法和缓冲区计算方法两个方面对关键链缓冲区计算进行优化。通过Z-number模糊数的引入,更加有效地表达工期估算的不确定性,同时定义高延期风险性活动,并根据项目活动不确定性,对缓冲区计算方法进行改进。最后通过一个具体的MIS开发案例,将本文方法与传统缓冲区设置方法进行对比,结果表明新的缓冲区设置方法可以保证有足够的项目缓冲来吸收项目的各种不确定性,并具有较高的完工率。

Research on buffer of MIS development project based on Z-number fuzzy number

In order to improve the efficiency of MIS development project management and optimize the estimation accuracy of the project buffer, this paper optimizes the critical chain buffer calculation in two aspects: the time estimation method and the buffer calculation method. According to the introduction of Z-number fuzzy number, more efficiently express duration estimating uncertainty, defined risk activities of high delay at the same time, according to the project uncertainty, the calculation method of the buffer was improved. Finally through a concrete MIS development case, the method with the traditional buffer setting method were compared, results show that the new buffer setting method can ensure adequate project buffer to absorb project uncertainty, and has a higher rate of completion.