The importance of domestic football leagues to international performance: predicting FIFA points

This paper estimates the importance of domestic professional and semi-professional football clubs to the performance of national team sides in earning FIFA points. It is likely the case that the pathway to further development and a spot on the national team for a young player is, at least initially, through a domestic football league. Yet the stage of development of football leagues differs markedly across nations. This paper finds that the presence and development of these leagues is a significant contributor to FIFA points for the national side, but with diminishing returns. Most recently, the largest effect is found for the nations that play in the African (CAF) and Oceania (OFC) zones, while the other four zones (AFC, CONCACAF, CONMEBOL and UEFA) share smaller positive effects. Even in the presence of limiting economic and demographic factors, the road to international football success is through the development of domestic leagues.