京津冀地区气象要素对空气质量的影响及未来变化趋势分析简

空气质量与人们的健康和生活息息相关。除了直接受局地大气污染物排放影响，空气质量也受局地气象要素的影响。本文利用相关分析法和主成分回归分析法详细阐述了2001-2010年北京、天津和石家庄的空气污染指数（API）与各气象要素的关系，并假设大气污染物排放相对稳定，结合高分辨率区域气候模式模拟结果，探讨未来各气象要素的可能变化及其对京津冀地区空气质量的潜在影响。结果表明：①气压、气温、降水量和相对湿度与3个城市空气质量的关系较为密切。其中，气压与API指数存在显著的正相关关系，其他气象要素与API指数存在显著的负相关关系；②未来京津冀地区的海平面气压和气温均呈上升趋势，风速呈减弱趋势。降水量在2020s呈下降趋势，而后上升，总体呈上升趋势。相对湿度在2020s和2050s呈下降趋势，而后上升，总体呈上升趋势；③SRES A1B排放情景下，未来气候变化对京津冀地区空气质量的改善有一定的促进作用。北京的API指数变化幅度远大于天津和石家庄，3个城市在不同时段的API指数变化峰值均出现在6月份。

The Impact of Meteorological Factors on Air Quality in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region and Trend Analysis

Air quality is closely related to people's health and lives. It is affected directly by the local emission of air pollutants and local meteorological factors. In this paper, based on observation data from Beijing, Tianjin and Shijiazhuang from 2001-2010, the relationships between the air pollution index (API) and meteorological factors were analyzed using correlation analysis and principal component regression. Assuming that air pollutant emissions are relatively stable, we discuss the potential impact of meteorological factors on air quality in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region combining the simulation results of regional climate models. We found that air pressure, air temperature, precipitation and relative humidity are closely related to air quality. The API is positively related to air pressure and negatively related to other meteorological factors. The sea level pressure and air temperature of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region will rise in the future according to regional climate modeling. Wind speed in the 21st century will decrease. Precipitation will decrease in the 2030s, but then the value of precipitation will rise and increase until the end of the 21st century. Relative humidity also has a rising trend, but it will decline in the 2030s and 2050s, then ascend. Under SRES A1B scenario, the future climate change has a certain effect on air quality improvement in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The future rangeability of API in Beijing is greater than Tianjin and Shijiazhuang. In the three cities, the peak values of API variation appear in June at all times.