新陈代谢模型在吉林西部地区降水量预测中的应用

水旱灾害是影响吉林省西部农业生产的主要灾害之一,粮食产量的大幅减产还会导致整个地区国民经济水平及人民生活水平的下降.降雨量是农业生产的一个重要影响因子,如何预测降雨量成为指导农业生产最重要的一项科技指标.文中以吉林省白城市2000-2011年的降雨量数据为研究对象,应用灰色预测GM（1,1）新陈代谢模型,对白城市今后十年降雨量进行科学合理的预测.

Application of Metabolism Model on Precipitation Forecast in West Area of Jilin

Floods and droughts are the main disasters that affect agricultural production badly in western Jilin prov- ince, a large reduction in food production can lead to decline of the entire national economy level and the people~ living standard. Precipitation is an important impact factors of agricultural production, how to predict precipitation becomes one of the most important technology index to guide agricultural production. We take the rainfall data during 2000 ~ 2011 of Baicheng city Jilin province as the research object, using Grey prediction GM （ 1, 1 ） metabolism model, to scientifically and reasonably forecast precipitation over the next decade in Baicheng city.