开放STIRPAT模型的区域碳排放峰值研究——以能源生产区域山西省为例

区域经济间的分工合作及相互依赖,对区域碳排放峰值有重要影响。本文以能源生产区域山西省为例,从山西和全国两个层面选择驱动因素构建开放STIRPAT模型,并运用情景分析方法预测山西省2016—2040年碳排放峰值。结果显示,全国层面选择节能或低碳情景,可实现山西碳排放量在2035年达峰;而同时山西以节能或低碳情景相配合,可实现2030年之前达峰;在当前全国碳排放控制趋于严格的背景下,山西碳排放量2030年达峰是可以实现的;山西碳排放峰值大小主要受全国层面情景选择影响,受山西情景选择影响较小;山西碳排放峰值的可控性较差,自身减排努力对碳排放峰值时间及大小的影响相对较小;与开放视角相比,封闭STIRPAT模型会推迟山西碳峰值年份,在预测时段无峰值,并高估其排放量。因此,山西应该从开放视角,关注全国层面的节能发展状况,将其作为山西碳峰值政策的重要约束因素,制定灵活的碳排放达峰方案。

Peak regional carbon emissions based on open STIRPAT modeling in an energy-producing region of Shanxi

Cooperation and interdependence among regional economies influences peak regional carbon emissions. Using an energy-producing region in Shanxi, China as an example, we built an open STIRPAT model by selecting driving factors provincially and nationally. We then used scenario analysis to predict peak carbon emissions from 2016 to 2040. The results show that when factors at the national level choose energy-saving or low-carbon scenarios, the peak in carbon emissions for Shanxi occurs in 2035. At the same time, by choosing energy-saving or low-carbon scenarios in Shanxi to match it, the peak can be achieved in 2030. With strict current national carbon emissions controls, peak carbon emissions for Shanxi are achieved in 2030. The peak value of carbon emission in Shanxi is mainly affected by the choice of carbon emission reduction scheme at the national level, and less affected by choices within the province. The controllability of Shanxi and its carbon emissions is poor, and its own emission reduction efforts have limited impact on regional peak values and the year of peak carbon emissions. Compared with the open view, the closed STIRPAT model will delay the peak emission and mean that Shanxi fails to achieve its peak value in the forecast period. Therefore, Shanxi should pay special attention to the energy saving development of the whole country from an open angle and make it an important constraint factor in the formulation of Shanxi's peak carbon policy to formulate a flexible carbon emission peak scheme.