无奈的选择:孔祥熙与抗战时期的增发货币政策

抗日战争爆发后,国民政府面临着严重的财政困难,财政收入锐减,财政支出猛增.作为财政部长的孔祥熙面临着很大的压力.他在借鉴了国外经验的基础上,认为增加财政收入的方法不外乎三种:即整饬税收、募集内外债和加发纸币.其中,他对增税与募债较为注重,而认为加发纸币容易引发通货膨胀,紊乱财政金融.所以,他在抗战初期主要采取了整顿税收、举借内外债等方法增加财政收入.这些措施虽然取得了一定成效,但所增收入与期望值仍然相差甚远,财政赤字依然居高不下.在没有其他有效的增收措施的情况下,孔祥熙在抗战中后期不得不采取了他极不愿意采取的方法,即增发货币.

Unpalatable Choice: H. H. Kung and the Policy of Increasing Notes Issuance during Anti-Japanese War

After the outbreak of the Anti-Japanese War,the government was faced with serious financial difficulties,the fiscal revenue had dropped sharply while expenditures increased.As the Finance Minister,H.H.Kung faced great pressure.He drew on the experiences abroad and thought that an increase in revenue had no more than three sources: straightening out revenue,collecting debt both at home and abroad and increasing notes issuance.Of those three ways,he attached great importance to the first two,and thought issuing notes could easily trigger inflation and financial disorder.Therefore,he adopted the increase of tax and the debt collection to increase revenue early in the war.Although these measures had achieved a certain degree of success,but still fell far short of revenue expectations.The budget deficit remained high.In the absence of other effective measures,H.H.Kung had taken a very reluctant approach:increasing notes issuance in the late the war.