技术生命周期判断方法研究综述

[目的/意义] 技术生命周期的精确判断有助于国家和企业对技术进行前瞻性管理,及时解决发展过程中的技术规划问题,帮助决策者及时了解技术发展动态,决定资本投资方向。[方法/过程] 文章基于文献综述法回顾了技术生命周期的发展历程、概括了当前技术生命周期阶段划分的主流观点,梳理了国内外技术生命周期判断方法相关研究成果,根据不同判断方法的技术特点与分析结果的特点将其划分为模型法、计量法与描述法3类。[结果/结论] 未来预测技术生命周期的判断继续以定量分析为主,将更加注重深层次的内容挖掘,尤其是深入文献内部所提取的一些能够体现技术生命周期阶段变化的指标信息可能会有更广阔的研究空间。

Review of Technology Life Cycle Analysis Methods

[Purpose/Significance] Accurate analysis of technology life cycle are conducive to countries and enterprises carrying out prospective management、timely solving technical planning matters in the process of development、helping decision makers understand current technical state and determining the direction of capital investment.[Method/Process] The paper systematically retrospected the development history of technology life cycle,summed up mainstream views of technology life cycle phases division and combed related research results of technology life cycle judgement methods at home and abroad.According to the technical characteristics of different judgment methods and analysis results,the paper divided them into three categories:model method,metric method and descriptive method.[Result/Conclusion] Judgement of technology life cycle would still take quantitative analysis as main element probably in the future,and pay more attention to the depth of content mining.There would be a broader research space especially for indicator information that can deep into the inside of literature and reveal the changes of these indicators.