Career prospects in British universities

A manpower planning model is used to examine the likely effects of slower university growth on the career prospects of staff in British universities. Various policies have been suggested as ways of easing the expected promotion blockages, such as lowering the age of retirement, changing the tenure arrangements and encouraging mid-career secondment of staff to other organisations. It is found that, for the British university system, such policies would have to be very drastic to be effective in keeping promotion ages at their present values.An alternative approach is suggested in which the senior grade sizes would be allowed to vary over time so as to prevent staff promotion prospects from declining, and the cost of such a policy is estimated. The model is also used to give some indications of the future prospects for postgraduate students seeking university employment.