技术进步、环保投资和出口结构对中国产业结构低碳化的影响分析

在深入分析产业结构低碳化内涵的基础上,从低碳产出、低碳排放和低碳能源3个维度构建了综合反映产业结构低碳化水平的测度指标体系,并运用1996-2011年数据实证测度我国产业结构低碳化水平。然后以历年产业结构低碳化测度值为因变量,以技术进步、环保投资和出口结构为自变量,运用通径分析方法,定量研究各因素对产业结构低碳化的作用。研究发现:1996年以来,我国产业结构低碳化水平呈现逐渐提升趋势;技术进步、环保投资和出口结构均有助于促进产业结构低碳化;由于技术进步和出口结构优化的限制因素较多,因此现阶段应重点依靠投资提升产业结构低碳化水平。

The Impact of Technological Progress,Environmental Investment and Export Structure on China's Industrial Structure to Low-Carbon

Industrial structure to low-carbon is the reduction of the proportion of high carbon industry sectors in the national economy. This involves implementation of the production process of low-carbon energy consumption,low-carbon emissions and low-carbon output to ultimately achieve economic development in harmony with the environment. Underlying premises include not affecting economic growth,taking technological progress as the core,strengthening environmental protection investment and improving trade structure. Based on in-depth analysis of the definition of industrial structure to low-carbon,we built a measurement index system to reflect comprehensively the low-carbon level of sectors from three dimensions(low-carbon output,low-carbon emissions and low-carbon energy). We used empirical measures from 1996-2011 and influencing factors of industrial structure to low-carbon as independent variables. We found that the level of China's industrial structure to low-carbon has been upgraded gradually since 1996. Direct influence, indirect influence,or the total influence,export structure,environmental investment and technological progress can help to promote industrial structure to low-carbon. Due to limiting factors to technical progress and export structure,at this stage China should rely on investment, giving priority to government investment and encouraging enterprises and social capital investment,to promote industrial structure to low carbon. The government should also pay attention to low carbon diplomacy,urge developed countries to provide financial support to developing countries,and promote low-carbon technology transfer cooperation at an industry level.