城市水生态系统可持续发展评价——以大连市为例

水是城市发展的生命线,维系水生态可持续发展态势对城市健康发展具有重要意义。基于此本文提出一种城市水生态可持续评价指数,并结合自回归移动平均(ARIMA)模型对城市水生态可持续发展趋势进行定量评价和预测。该指数融合了水生态足迹和水生态承载力,通过比较分析城市水资源利用模式和污水消纳占用的水资源用地需求,明确城市水资源可持续供需关系。选取大连市进行实证分析,结果表明2001-2011年大连市水生态足迹远高于水生态承载力,处于不可持续发展水平。若维持目前的水资源利用模式,则可预测至2015-2019年大连市水资源生态足迹逐年递增,城市水污染生态足迹整体呈下降趋势。而大连市水资源供给能力若仍维持目前水平,其水生态仍将处于不可持续发展状态。以年均城市水生态承载力与水生态足迹差值估算,尚需13.09亿t水来达到城市水生态供给需求平衡。基于此从优化水资源利用模式和提高水资源供给能力两方面提出维系大连水生态可持续发展的对策和建议。

Assessment of Sustainable Development of Urban Water Ecosystems in Dalian

Water resources are vital to urban development and maintaining water ecological sustainable development plays a key role in healthy urban development. Here,we propose an index for urban water sustainable development assessment,and combined with auto-regressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) model conduct prediction analysis for urban water ecological sustainable development. The index was integrated with water ecological footprint(EF)and water ecological carrying capacity(ECw)used to account for various urban water-use modes and analyze the balance relationship between urban water demand and supply. Taking Dalian as a case study in this research,the ESIw results showed that from 2001 to 2011 urban water ecology in Dalian was unsustainable because the urban water ecological footprint was higher that carrying capacity. According to current water supply capacity,predictions for next five years were conducted using an ARIMA(1,1,1) model and ARIMA(5,1,5) model. It showed that water ecological development in Dalian will still be unsustainable from 2015-2019,with increasing EFwr and decreasing EFwc. According to the average annual urban water ecological carrying capacity and urban water ecological footprint,Dalian needs 1.309 billion tons of water to realize water ecological sustainable balance. Several suggestions are discussed that would maintain water ecological sustainable development in Dalian with respect to mode optimization utilization and water supply improvement