“亚洲水塔”变化与影响

以青藏高原为核心的"第三极"是除南极和北极以外冰雪储量最大的地区,被称为"亚洲水塔",包括面积约1×10~5 km~2的冰川、总面积约5×10~4 km~2的湖泊和长江、黄河、雅鲁藏布江、印度河、恒河、湄公河、阿姆河、塔里木河等10多条亚洲大江大河的源头。"亚洲水塔"变化关系着中国的水资源利用以及"一带一路"地区众多国家的水安全。在气候变暖背景下,"亚洲水塔"正在发生以失衡为特征的剧烈变化。冰川加速退缩、湖泊整体显著扩张、冰川径流增加等过程都和"亚洲水塔"失衡密切相关。"亚洲水塔"的失衡变化导致了青藏高原及周边地区水资源和水灾害风险增加,出现了冰崩等新型灾害。这些变化也可以通过大气圈和水圈产生广域效应,进而和南极、北极变化协同联动,影响全球气候变化和水循环。第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究聚焦于过去50年来"亚洲水塔"动态变化及其影响,与"泛第三极环境变化与绿色丝绸之路建设"专项实施一道,为我国资源环境重大战略需求和绿色"一带一路"发展,提出应对"亚洲水塔"变化与影响的科学对策和水资源规划管理及可持续发展的科学指导,以服务于全球生态环境保护、人类命运共同体建设。

Asian Water Tower Change and Its Impacts

The Tibetan Plateau and surroundings, also known as the Third Pole, is widely acknowledged as the Asian Water Tower. It holds glaciers with an area about 100 000 km², and lakes with an area about 50 000 km². It gives birth to more than ten big rivers in Asia including the Yangtze River, Yellow River, Yarlung Tsangpo, Indus, Ganges, Mekong, Amu Darya, Tarim River, etc. Its environmental changes affect water resources utilization in China and water securities in many nations involved in the Belt and Road initiative. The Asian Water Tower is undergoing dramatic changes characterized with unbalance in a warming climate. Accelerated glacier retreats, permafrost degradation, lake expansion, as well as increase of glacial melt to runoff are all related to the unbalance change of the Asian Water Tower. These have put the Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding regions at risk and caused many water-related hazards such as glacier collapse. Asian Water Tower change would even be amplified through the atmosphere and hydrosphere to affect global climate and water cycle, thus coupling and interacting with changes on the Arctic and Antarctica. The Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research program (STEP) and Pan-Third Pole Environment study for a Green Silk Road program (Pan-TPE) will focus on the study of Asian Water Tower change and its local to regional impacts in the past half century, conduct comprehensive field expeditions and research, and advise on science policy to confront Asian Water Tower change and impacts. The ultimate goal of the STEP and Pan-TPE is to provide scientific advice to China and nations around on water resources regulations and sustainable development, thus serving global ecological environment and a community with a shared future for mankind.