中国五大粮食主产区农业抗旱能力综合评价

农业抗旱能力反映了地区防旱减灾的水平。对农业抗旱能力进行综合评价,有助于及时掌握我国农业抵御旱灾能力的空间分布及区域差异,进一步加强抗旱管理、提高抗旱能力。本文选择我国五大粮食主产区作为研究区,采用特定时间尺度下的干燥度指标分析了研究区的自然干旱程度,并选择土壤质地、高低需水作物面积比、耕地有效灌溉率、农机动力系数、农林水利事务支出、人均GDP等6个指标,应用加权求和法评价了研究区的农业抗旱能力现状,进而分析了其自然干旱背景下的实际农业抗旱能力。结果表明:三江平原、松嫩平原自然干旱程度高且抗旱能力弱,较低的耕地灌溉水平以及严重滞后的农田水利建设使得两区实际农业抗旱能力明显低于其他地区;黄淮海平原自然干旱程度高但抗旱能力较强,可其为保证较高的灌溉率超采地下水已引起严重的生态问题;长江中游及江淮地区自然干旱程度低且抗旱能力较强,综合农业抗旱能力相对最强;四川盆地自然干旱程度低但抗旱能力低下,社会经济欠发达、农田水利建设较为薄弱,综合农业抗旱能力略高于三江平原和松嫩平原,是防旱抗旱的重点区域。

Evaluation of Agriculture Drought Resistance Under Natural Drought in Five Grain Producing Areas in China

Agriculture drought resistance reflects regional levels of drought control and disaster mitigation,which is extremely important to agricultural production. We analyzed the natural aridity of five main grain producing areas and chose six indices including soil texture,area ratio of high and low water consumption crops,the rate of efficient irrigation,agricultural machinery dynamic coefficient,expenditure of agroforestry and water transaction and per capita GDP to evaluate agriculture drought resistance using the Weighted Sum Method. We then analyzed the actual agriculture drought resistance under natural drought. We found that in the Sanjiang Plain and Songnen Plain the natural drought degree is high and agriculture drought resistance is weak. The lower rate of efficient and weaker water conservancy construction means the actual comprehensive ability for coping with agriculture drought in these two regions is significantly lower than that of other regions. In the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain,the natural drought degree is high and agriculture drought resistance is strong,however,its exploitation of groundwater to ensure a high irrigation rate is of concern. In the middle Yangtze River and Jianghuai regions,there has been low degree of natural drought and strong agriculture drought resistance,making these areas the strongest to cope with agriculture drought. The ability of the Sichuan Basin,where the degree of natural drought is low but agriculture drought resistance is weak,to cope with agriculture drought is only slightly higher than that of the Sanjiang and Songnen Plains. Because of socio-economic underdevelopment and weak water conservancy construction,the Sichuan Basin is a key area to focus on drought control and drought relief.