技术科学发展与产业结构变迁相关性统计研究

通过技术科学发展时间序列特征曲线与梅兹(R. Metz)经济长波曲线的系统比较和统计分析发现,产业革命以来,表现为经济长波现象的产业结构变迁与技术科学发展之间存在内在的相关性。技术科学的合理发展,既要能维持其为主导产业群提供直接服务与间接服务之间的相对平衡,又要能有效地满足上次、本次和下次主导产业群的知识需求。本文并据此初步预测了21世纪初技术科学发展与产业结构演进的基本概况。

Study on statistical relativity between development of technological sciences and evolution of industry structure

By statistical analysis and systematical comparison between the time series curve of technological sciences development and the Long Wave curve drawn by Rainer Metz, the intrinsic relativity can be found between the vicissitudes of industry structure which are represented by the Long Wave and the development of technological sciences since Industry Revolution. The rational developing model of technological sciences must not only maintain the relative balance between direct and indirect services which are supplied for leading industry groups, but also efficiently meet the knowledge demands of leading industry groups of last time, of this time, and of next time separately. According to the studying results above, the outlines of technological sciences development and industry structure evolution can be forecasted finally at the beginning of 21st century.