Modeling the Relationship Between Oral Reading Fluency and Performance on a Statewide Reading Test

This study examined the relationship between oral reading fluency and performance on a statewide reading test across Grades 3, 4, and 5. A curriculum-based measure of oral reading fluency was administered to 3rd, 4th, and 5th graders who participated in the reading test from the Colorado Student Assessment Program (CSAP). A cross-sectional design with individuals nested within classrooms and classrooms nested within grade levels was used. Hierarchical linear modeling was employed to analyze the relationships. Significant correlations were found between oral reading fluency and the CSAP for all 3 grades. The measure of oral reading fluency added unique information to predicting CSAP performance over and above the predictability of previous year CSAP testing. There was significant variation at the individual classroom level in the relationship between oral reading fluency and CSAP performance. Diagnostic efficiency statistics were used with cut scores to predict whether students would pass or fail the CSAP.