Predicting Low Reading From Phonological Awareness and Classroom Print

The central argument of this experiment is that phonological awareness deficits are characteristic of children with low reading, and therefore phonological awareness tasks will be better predictors of children at risk for low reading than tasks reflecting other processes associated with successful reading. The Early Reading Screening (ERS) was developed to identify kindergarten children at risk in terms of Stanovich's (1988) phonogical core deficit model. It was compared with the Screening Index (SI; Jansky & deHirsch, 1972), a prediction model based on underlying visual-motor and oral language processes believed to be associated with successful reading. Data from 129 middle- to high-socioeconomic status urban kindergarten children were analyzed using correlations between the two screenings and a first-grade reading outcome measure. The ERS accounted for 48% of first-grade reading variance, whereas the SI accounted for 14%. When a 2 x 2 classification matrix was used to test prediction accuracy, both tests correctly identified roughly 85% of successful readers, but the ERS was a better predictor of low reading. The value of this study lies in its dual analysis methods as well as in the notion of using a predictor associated with poor rather than successful performance on the outcome measure.