浅析我国国债的挤出效应

1998年我国政府实行积极财政政策，国债规模逐年攀升。但是庞大的国债规模。并没有对私人投资产生明显的挤出效应。尽管如此，政府制定政策时还是应当慎重，应该适当控制国债的增长率，转变财政支出的结构。本文从挤出效应的作用机制入手，通过模拟我国的IS-LM模型，从实证的角度论证了国债没有对私人投资产生明显的挤出效应。

Comment on the Crowding Out Of Our Government Bonds

In 1998, our government carried out the positive fiscal policies and issued a large quantity of bonds to make up the large deficit at the same time. However, there was little crowding out for the private investment because of the big scale. Above all, our government must lay down the policy cautiously which used to control the rate of the increase of government bond and change the constrncture of the government expenses. In this essay, the aathor uses a method which combinates the mechanisms to crowd out happened with the empirical analysis to prove why the crowding out did not happen.