| 社会预警研究中判别分析技术的应用 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 冯江平,黄三宝,王欣,陈虹,王二平.社会预警研究中判别分析技术的应用[J].云南师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2010,42(4):48-52. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 冯江平 黄三宝 王欣 陈虹 王二平 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 云南师范大学,西南边疆稳定与发展研究中心,云南,昆明,650092
2. 中国科学院,心理研究所,北京,100101 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金西部项目 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 近年来,各种社会突发事件和群体性冲突事件时有发生,极大地影响了社会稳定,探寻具有实用价值的社会预警技术,有效开展预测预报,无疑具有重要的政治意义和社会意义。通过引入社会心理学中的判别分析技术,建立起多元分析的社会预警判别函数,运用回代检测和实证检验的方法,对取自云南省11个边疆少数民族县的382份调查问卷进行验证,判别分析判正率达66.7%,说明这一技术可用于预测社会群体性事件的发生概率,并可发现影响群体性事件发生的主要因素。
|
| 关 键 词： | 社会预警 判别分析 判别模型 边疆民族地区 |
The Application of Discriminatory Analysis to the Research of Early-warning System for Social Emergency Events |
| |
| FENG Jiang-ping,HUANG San-bao,WANG Xin,CHEN Hong,WANG Er-ping.The Application of Discriminatory Analysis to the Research of Early-warning System for Social Emergency Events[J].Journal of Yunnan Normal University(Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition),2010,42(4):48-52. |
| |
| Authors: | FENG Jiang-ping HUANG San-bao WANG Xin CHEN Hong WANG Er-ping |
| |
| Institution: | FENG Jiang-ping1,HUANG San-bao1,WANG Xin1,CHEN Hong1,WANG Er-ping2(1. Research Center of Borderland Stability and Development,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming 650092,China,2. Institute of Psychology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China) |
| |
| Abstract: | In recent years in China,there have been some social emergency events and group conflicts which have much disturbed our social stability. The study of practical and effective early-warning technology for such events has much political and social significance. Adopting the technology of discriminatory analysis in social psychology and the multi-analysis of the discriminant function for the early-warning system plus some tests,this research has analyzed 382 questionnaires from eleven border and minority count... |
| |
| Keywords: | early-warning system for emergency events discriminatory analysis discriminative model border and minority areas |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
