Does High School Matter? An Analysis of Three Methods of Predicting First-Year Grades

This research evaluated the usefulness of 3 approaches for predicting college grades: (a) traditional regression models, (b) high-school-effects models, and (c) hierarchical linear models. Results of an analysis of the records of 8,764 freshmen at a major research university revealed that both the high-school-effects model and the hierarchical linear model were more accurate predictors of freshman GPA than was the traditional model, particularly for lower ability students. Counter to expectations, the hierarchical linear model was not more accurate than the high school effects model.