A Paradox in the Study of the Benefits of Test‐Item Review

According to a popular belief, test takers should trust their initial instinct and retain their initial responses when they have the opportunity to review test items. More than 80 years of empirical research on item review, however, has contradicted this belief and shown minor but consistently positive score gains for test takers who changed answers they found to be incorrect during review. This study reanalyzed the problem of the benefits of answer changes using item response theory modeling of the probability of an answer change as a function of the test taker’s ability level and the properties of items. Our empirical results support the popular belief and reveal substantial losses due to changing initial responses for all ability levels. Both the contradiction of the earlier research and support of the popular belief are explained as a manifestation of Simpson’s paradox in statistics.