| 预期与金融市场价格行为 |
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| 引用本文： | 郑伟. 预期与金融市场价格行为[J]. 预测, 2001, 20(6): 27-32 |
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| 作者姓名： | 郑伟 |
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| 作者单位： | 西安交通大学,管理学院,陕西,西安,710049 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于理性预期等假设的有效市场假说和现代投资组合理论是主流的金融市场理论。然而，近20年来发展起来的行为金融及非线性经济学的研究，对主流金融市场理论发起了有力的挑战。在本文中，作者放松理性预期的假设，重新定义了准理性预期的表达式，并用它来解释金融资产，主要是股票价格的混沌特征的产生机制，阐述了预期的准理性性质对我国股市发展的借鉴意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 理性预期 准理性预期 行为金融 混沌 价格行为 金融市场 股票价格 证券市场 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-5192(2001)06-0027-06 |
Expectation and Price Behavior of Finance Market |
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| ZHENG Wei. Expectation and Price Behavior of Finance Market[J]. Forecasting, 2001, 20(6): 27-32 |
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| Authors: | ZHENG Wei |
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| Abstract: | The Efficient Market Hypothesis and the Modern Portfolio Theory, based on the hypotheses of rational expectation etc, are main stream theories in the field of finance research. Since 1980s', however, the developing theories of behavioral finance and non linear economics have brought forward serious challenges to EMH and MPT. In this article, after release the strict hypothesis of rational expectation, the author explains the mechanism of chaos behavior of stock price by refining the expression of near rational expectation and exclaims some ideas according to the notion of near rational expectation to improve the efficiency of China's stock market. |
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| Keywords: | rational expectation near rational expectation behavioral finance chaos price behavior |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
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