Understanding and predicting the yield in the MBA admissions process

This paper examines the factors influencing theyield — the proportion of accepted applicants that confirm their intention to attend — in the admissions process for the MBA program of the school of management at a large metropolitan university. A stochastic model of a student's MBA program choice decision is presented. Using the resulting logistic probability model, the authors examine the impact of student traits (both aptitude-related and non-aptitude-related) and program characteristics, known to admissions officials, on the probability of confirmation. The results of the analysis provide a basis for measuring the dimensions of the market for educational services this MBA program provides, suggest a strategic response to this market, and offer a way to measure the profitability of various strategic response options. In particular, the results demonstrate that financial aid awards can increase dramatically the probability of confirmation and that confirmation probabilities are affected significantly by non-aptitude-related student characteristics.