Are the Factors Affecting Dropout Behavior Related to Initial Enrollment Intensity for College Undergraduates?

We use data from the 1990/1994 Beginning Post-Secondary Survey to determine whether the factors associated with long-term attrition from higher education differ for students who initially enrolled part-time as compared to for students who initially enrolled full-time. Using a two-stage sequential decision model to analyze the initial enrollment intensity decision jointly with attrition, we find no evidence of correlation in the unobservables that necessitates joint estimation, but substantial evidence that the factors associated with attrition differ by initial enrollment status. The timing of initial enrollment, academic performance, parental education, household characteristics, and economic factors had a substantially greater impact on those initially enrolled full-time, while racial and ethnic characteristics had a greater impact on those initially enrolled part-time. The results of our study suggest that separate specifications are necessary to identify at-risk full-time as compared with at-risk part-time students. The data employed here were generated while working under a grant supported in part by the Association for Institutional Research, the National Center for Education Statistics, and the National Science Foundation under the Association for Institutional Research 1999 Improving Institutional Research in Post-secondary Educational Institutions Grant Program. The Spencer Foundation Small Grants program provided funding for the analysis. Leslie Stratton gratefully acknowledges additional support from a 2001 Faculty Excellence Award from Virginia Commonwealth University. Referees from the 2005 Southern Economic Association meetings and from Research in Higher Education provided very helpful comments. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Spencer Foundation, the Association for Institutional Research, the National Center for Education Statistics, or the National Science Foundation.