基于GIS的福建省陆地风能资源开发潜力评估

科学、准确的评估区域风能的开发潜力及其空间分布状况是风能资源开发的一项重要基础性工作。本文应用GIS手段建立了一套简单有效的评估区域陆地风能资源的方法。利用福建省的23个气象站30年的日均气象数据,应用趋势面分析和普通克吕格插值结合的混合插值方法,计算得到空间分辨率为1km×1km的年平均风速的空间分布数据。以此数据集为基础,结合研究区的DEM和土地利用等地理限制因素,分别评估了距地面50m、80m和100m高度上的风能开发的技术潜力及发电经济成本。结果发现：福建省在三个高度上风电的适宜开发面积都在1万km2以上,主要集中分布在东部沿海一带。选择三种目前主流的风电机组作为参考风机,估算结果显示,福建省陆上风电的总装机容量可达187～245GW,年均发电量约为2010年福建省全社会总用电量的4到5倍。同时,风能的单位发电成本在（0.13～0.76）元/kW.h之间,风况条件较好的沿海地区风电的经济性优势显著,应作为优先开发区域。

Assessment of Onshore Wind Energy Potential in Fujian Province Based on GIS

Scientific and accurate assessment of the regional wind energy potential and its spatial distribution play an important role in the regional energy planning. This study attempts to establish simple and effective methods for assessing regional wind energy resources with GIS software. With daily meteorological data from 23 weather stations in Fujian Province within 30 years, the annual average wind speed with spatial resolution of 1km in the study area has been calculated by using the hybrid interpolation method integrated by trend surface analysis and ordinary Kring interpolation. Based on this data set, we have evaluated the technical potential of wind energy development and generation costs at places 50m, 80m and 100m respectively above ground by taking into consideration some geographical restriction factors in the study area such as DEM and land use. The results show that the annual average wind speed has strong correlation with local latitude, elevation and slope. The eastern coastal areas of Fujian province have the best wind energy, which reduces gradually from the east to the west and from the south to the north. The annual average wind speed increases with heights, and it ranges from 0.81 to 7.05m/s at places 10m above ground. The suitable areas for development of wind energy in Fujian are more than 10,000 km² (accounting for about 10% of the total area in Fujian province), mainly located in the eastern coastal regions. Three kinds of main current wind turbines have been chosen as reference equipments for estimation of the technical potential of wind energy. The results indicate that Fujian's total installed capacity of onshore wind power can reach up to 187 ~ 245GW, and the average annual power generation can be four to five times as the total electricity consumption of Fujian Province in 2010. At last, the unit costs of wind power generation have been calculated based on the current market situation of wind power, which range from 0.013 to 0.076 Yuan/kWh. The lower costs of wind power are, the better the wind energy is. Therefore, wind power is a significant economic advantage for coastal areas.