政府引导下的应急科研攻关效能何以提升——面向攻关项目实施的随机演化博弈分析

应急科研攻关是为应急管理实践提供科技支撑、解决应急管理难题的重要科学研究活动。为厘清影响应急科研攻关效能的主要因素，面向应急科研攻关项目实施中核心环节的基本特征，构建了基于政府部门与科研攻关团队的应急科研攻关博弈系统。考虑应急科研攻关中的不确定性，构建了受到随机干扰的应急科研攻关随机演化博弈模型。进一步的，引用仿真分析考察了影响博弈系统演化与博弈主体策略选择的主要因素。研究结果表明：应急技术成果储备效益、应急科研攻关支持强度、应急技术需求反馈系数、攻关项目流程优化系数、应急技术成果适用系数均能推动应急科研攻关博弈系统形成积极部署引导与高效研发的策略组合。提升应急科研攻关管理强度虽能提高科研攻关团队选择高效研发策略的概率，但亦会降低政府部门选择积极部署引导策略的主动性。在此基础上，从加强常态化应急技术储备、实施多元化项目扶持举措、适应差异化应急实践场景、夯实制度化安全管理模式提出了提升应急科研攻关效能的对策建议。

How to improve the effectiveness of emergency scientific research under the guidance of the government : Stochastic evolutionary game analysis considering the implementation of key projects

Emergency scientific research is an important scientific research activity to provide scientific and technological support for emergency management practice and solve the problems of emergency management. In order to clarify the main factors affecting the effectiveness of emergency scientific research, combined with the basic characteristics of the core links in the implementation of emergency scientific research projects, the emergency scientific research game system based on government departments and scientific research teams was constructed. Considering the uncertainty of emergency scientific research, the stochastic evolutionary game model of emergency scientific research with random interference was constructed. Furthermore, the main factors that affect the evolution of game system and strategy selection of game subjects are investigated by simulation analysis. The results show that the reserve benefit of emergency technical achievements, the intensity of emergency scientific research support, the feedback coefficient of emergency technical demand, the optimization coefficient of project process and the application coefficient of emergency technical achievements can all promote the emergency scientific research game system to form a strategy combination of active deployment and guidance as well as efficient R&D. Although improving the intensity of emergency research supervision can improve the probability of scientific research teams selecting efficient R&D strategies, it will also reduce the initiative of government departments to select active deployment and guidance strategies. On this basis, countermeasures and suggestions were put forward to improve the efficiency of emergency scientific research from strengthening normal emergency technology reserve, implementing diversified project support measures, adapting to differentiated emergency practice scenarios and consolidating institutionalized safety management mode.