重大工程项目复杂性识别及定量测度

为加强对重大工程项目所具有的显著的复杂性特点的理解与有效度量，突破性建立重大工程项目复杂性定量评价方法，为项目管理人员精准把控项目复杂性提供有效方法。通过文献综述与专家访谈，从理论上明晰重大工程项目及其复杂性的定义与内涵；基于技术-组织-环境（TOE）理论框架识别重大工程项目复杂性评价要素，通过三轮问卷设计形成调查问卷，对回收的94份问卷进行信度、效度检验与因子分析，构建包含3个维度（技术复杂性、组织复杂性、环境复杂性）与17个二级评价指标的重大工程项目复杂性测度体系；基于网络层次分析（ANP）模型计算得出各指标的权重系数，并提出重大工程项目复杂性计算公式，在此基础上进行案例分析。结果表明：通过三层次复杂性管理策略体系，重大工程项目复杂性定量评估使得评价信息来源明晰、准确与可靠，既实现对项目整体复杂性的宏观把控，又有助于明确复杂性管理方案中的重点控制维度及具体措施。

Identification and Quantitative Assessment of Complexity of Megaproject

Based on the TOE framework theory, the complexity evaluation elements of megaprojects were identified and a complexity measurement system was established through a literature review and expert interviews. Then the reliability, validity, and factor analysis of 94 questionnaires were tested to set up the framework of complexity factors. Moreover, on the basis of the ANP model, the weight coefficients of each index were calculated, and the complexity calculation formula for megaprojects was put forward and then verified by cases. This paper theoretically clarifies the definition and connotation of megaprojects and their complexity as well as establishes a breakthrough quantitative evaluation system for the complexity of megaprojects. It realizes objective appraisal of project complexity and provides an efficacious method for project managers to accurately grasp the project complexity.