我国公共教育投资比例研究

根据国际横截面数据和中国时间序列数据,通过建立计量经济模型分析影响公共教育投资比例的因素,并对未来我国公共教育投资比例进行预测,其结论是:(1)应主要以财政供给能力来解释和预测我国公共教育投资比例的变化;(2)借鉴国际经验,考虑未来我国公共教育投资比例的变化趋势时应主要参考中等收入国家的情况;(3)我国公共教育投资比例将在2010年接近4%,在2020年达到4.4%-4.5%。

Study on the public ratio of investment in education of China

Based on cross section data all over the world and time series data in China,we employ econometric models to explore the factors which have impact on the public ratio of investment in education and predict the public ratio of investment in education of China.We have several conclusions: the ratio of fiscal revenue to GDP is the most significant variable to predict variance in the public ratio of investment in education of China;context in middle-income countries should be the highest priority when making international comparison;and the public ratio of investment in education of China will be close to 4% in 2010,and reach 4.4-4.5% in 2020.