中部地区经济增长中的水土资源“增长尾效”对比研究

基于内生经济增长理论构建出了内生的经济发展中的水土资源＂尾效＂模型,并以中部的山西、安徽、江西、河南、湖北和湖南等六省为例进行实证分析。利用SVAR分析水土资源与经济增长是否存在关系的基础上,通过纳入水土资源和人力资源的数据进行＂增长尾效＂的面板数据分析,量化测度出中部六省水土资源＂尾效＂的数值,数值显示,六省的水土资源已成为其经济增长的阻力。并通过比较分析得出：经济增长受到水土资源约束影响最大的是安徽省,每年的经济增长速度由于水土资源的耗费要降低大概0.53%,其次是山西、河南、江西、湖北,湖南的经济增长速度受到水土资源约束的影响最小,仅为0.09%。最后为中部地区水土资源可持续利用的提出对策及建议。

A Comparative Analysis of Resources Consumption Drag of the Central Region of China

Since the strategy of the rise of the Central Region of China was put forward, governments and officials have tended to focus on economic growth. However, related resource and environment issues are paid less attention. There is an urgent need to understand whether the shortage of resources has restricted economic growth. First, the authors expounded reality of economic growth and resource relationships in China. Second, based on the endogenous economic growth theory, water and land resource elements were taken into account in an economic growth model, and an endogenous growth model about water and land in economy growth was built and applied to the central region of China. The first detailed process was to define the consumption drag of water and land resources, and to propose function formulas and principles by analyzing the economic basis of the growing drag. After that, one must make sure if there is a relationship between economic growth and water and land resource through SVAR. If any, panel analysis should be performed. Then, their drag values caused by the lack of land and water are calculated. According to the results of SVAR model analysis, there are relationships between economic growth and water and land resources in six provinces of the central region. It is helpful to examine how the detailed relationships work qualitatively through Impulse Response analysis. However, calculating restrictions of water and land resources to economic growth quantitatively is more valuable. Results show that water and land resources have restrained economic growth in six provinces of the central region of China. The most significant restriction of water and land resources to economic growth is displayed in Anhui Province. The annual economic growth rate decreases 0.53% probably because of water and land resource consumption, followed by Shanxi Province, Henan Province, Jiangxi Province, and Hubei province. The minimal one is Hunan Province, only 0.09%. At last, according to the analysis above, strategies and suggestions on ensuring sustainable development between economic growth and water and land resources for the central region were proposed, such as increasing water and land resources, making the best of abandoned water and land resources, and reducing the waste of water and land resources as much as possible.