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Variety,complexity and economic development
Institution:1. Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Netherlands;2. Center for Complex Systems Studies, Utrecht University, Netherlands;1. Center for SMEs and Venture Business Research, Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade (KIET), 370 Sicheong-daero, Sejong 30147, South Korea;2. Centre for Transformative Innovation, Swinburne University of Technology, Mail H25, PO Box 218 Hawthorn, VIC 3122, Australia;1. Department of Technology Management, SINTEF Digital, P.O. Box 4760 Torgarden, NO-7465 Trondheim, Norway;2. TIK Centre for Technology, Innovation and Culture, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1108, Blindern, NO-0317 Oslo, Norway;3. Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen, Rolighedsvej 23, DK-1958 Frederiksberg C, Denmark;1. Institute of Economics, Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy;2. United Nations University - MERIT, Boschstraat 24, AX Maastricht 6211, Netherlands;3. IBIMET-CNR, Florence, Italy;4. European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Seville, Spain;5. Institute of Complex Systems, CNR, Rome, Italy
Abstract:We propose a combinatorial model of economic development. An economy develops by acquiring new capabilities allowing for the production of an ever greater variety of products with an increasing complexity. Taking into account that economies abandon the least complex products as they develop over time, we show that variety first increases and then decreases in the course of economic development. This is consistent with the empirical pattern known as ‘the hump’. Our results question the common association of variety with complexity. We further discuss the implications of our model for future research.
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