秦岭自然保护区群成本效益研究(Ⅱ)——成本效益预测

本研究在秦岭自然保护区群成本效益计量研究成果的基础上,对成本效益进行进一步分析及预测。运用统计软件SPSS17.0结合十余种拟合曲线,根据秦岭自然保护区群中7个国家级自然保护区的成本效益截面数据,尝试性地进行了综合效益及三大成本之间关系曲线拟合。研究结果表明：根据模型拟合优度R2大小及显著水平Sig.判断,最终得出了成本效益之间的关系式。即三个拟合函数分别是：①综合效益（Qt）与直接保护成本（Xa）的函数曲线方程为：Qt=-68.244＋870.688Xa-2493.849Xa2＋2304.879Xa3;②综合效益（Qt）与间接保护成本（Xb）的函数曲线方程为：Qt=17.844e1.986Xb;③综合效益（Qt）与机会保护成本（Xc）的函数曲线方程为：Qt=-78.157＋104.775Xc-32.953Xc2＋3.296Xc3。本研究结果可以为国家有关部门进行保护区投资做有益的帮助,同时为陕西省自然保护区保护政策的完善做理论支撑。

A Cost-Benefit Study in Qinling Mountains Nature Reserve Group:Forecast of Cost and Benefit

The Qinling Nature Reserve Group (QNRG) construction project is not only an important key forestry ecological engineering and a key support project of the West Development in China, but also a complex social and economic system engineering. With the operation of cropland conversion project and natural forest protection in Shaanxi province, the QNRG and its surrounding systems will be affected consequently. Based on the cost and benefit measurement in QNRG, this study has made a forecast about the protection cost and benefit. According to the current national cost investment and sample section data, we have predicted the relationship between comprehensive benefit and cost, which can be served as a basis for optimizing the Qinling nature reserve policy. On the basis of cost-benefit section data of seven national nature reserves in QNRG, we have fit the curves of comprehensive benefits and 3 related costs with SPSS17.0 and more than 10 kinds of fitting curves. Considering the model Goodness-of-Fit R² and Significant Level Sig, three fitting functions have been developed as follows: 1) Curve equation between comprehensive benefits (Q_t) and the direct cost of protection(Xa):Q_t =- 68.244+870.688 Xa-2493.849Xa²+2304.879Xa³;2) Curve equation between comprehensive benefits (Q_t) and indirect cost of protection(Xb):Q_t=17.844e^1.986Xb; 3) Curve equation between comprehensive benefits (Q_t) and opportunity cost of protection(Xc):Q_t=-78.157+104.775Xc-32.953Xc² +3.296Xc³ . In this study, direct and opportunity cost exhibit relatively high correlation with comprehensive benefits with Sig. < 0.05. However, indirect cost presents low correlation with comprehensive benefits with Sig. >0.05. Considering the above results, we have chosen an exponential function to fit the curve between indirect cost and comprehensive benefits. It is widely recognized that researching cost and benefit as well as protection policy of nature reserve is a complex and difficult work, which depends on both natural characteristics of nature reserves and local social and economic conditions and needs continuous research and exploration from both domstic and international scholars. This study has informed the investment in reserves as well as provided theory support for policy making of nature reserves in Shaanxi province.