技术结构和转变经济发展方式——基于广义经济系统控制的实证研究

利用广义经济系统控制方法和动态规划理论,我们构建技术结构和经济发展方式的广义经济控制系统,推导出最优控制变量选择对技术结构合理化调整的最优路径,并以甘肃省1978-2007年数据验证该理论机制。实证表明甘肃省工业部门技术结构偏离最优经济发展路径。结论进一步验证,技术结构和经济发展之间存在负相互作用,在控制系统中形成负反馈控制能够达到系统最优化。最后,从提高反馈效率和到达最优状态最短路径选择的角度,我们提出相关建议。

Technology structure and economic development: from the empirical study of general economic control system

With feedback mechanism in economic cybernetics and optimal dynamic planning,we design an feedback system including technology structure and economic development,and calculate the best response of technology structure adjustment to the impulse of control variables.Under the mechanism we study Gansu during the period of 1978-2007.The empirical study argues that,first,technology structure of Gansu industry sector severely deviates from the optimal path;second,in the condition of biased technology structure,we analyze relation between technology structure and economic development measured with impulse response.The results suggest that because of the negative relation between increasing technology structure and economic development,negative feedback in a closed-loop control system may help optimizing the system.Finally,from the standpoint of raising efficiency of feedback and choosing the optimal path,we bring forward some suggestions.