基于空间滞后模型的区域经济发展影响因素分析

以山西省107个县域为基本的研究单元。首先，利用泰尔指数分解了2000-2010年山西县域人均GDP的总体差异。结果显示：县域经济发展水平的总体差异处于不断增加的趋势，地市间发展水平的差异显著大于多数地市内部县域间的差异。其次，对山西县域经济发展的空间相关性进行了分析，并采用空间滞后模型进一步分析了导致山西县域经济发展在空间上存在巨大差异的深层原因，模型结果显示：城镇化进程、工业化程度、农民生活水平和政府财政支出水平是影响县域经济发展的重要因素。最后，给出相应的政策建议。

Analysis on Influencing Factors of Shanxi County-level Economic Development based on the Spatial Lag Model

This study is based on the 107 counties of Shanxi provinee. Firstly, we use the Theil index to decompose the per capita GDP of eleven cities covering the year of 2000-2010. The results show that Shanxi eounty economy development level is low anti the county economy development disparities appear increasing tendency. Secondly, we further analyze the spatial correlation anti construct the spatial lag model to explore the influence factors that result in the tremendous disparities within Shanxi counties. From the model we find thai the process of urbanization, industrialization, the living standards of farmers and the government expenditure level is mainly the important factors which affect the development of county economy. At last, some relative suggestions are put forward.