内蒙古经济增长与资源优势的关系——基于“资源诅咒”假说的实证分析

本文从"资源诅咒"假说出发,对内蒙古地区的资源优势与经济增长之间的关系进行了计量检验和分析,并给出了相应的政策启示。结果表明:从长期来看,内蒙古的确存在着"资源诅咒"现象,主要原因是资源开发导致的"荷兰病"效应。但西部大开发以后,随着国家及地区各项政策的实施",资源诅咒"现象在内蒙古地区被破解。通过进一步实证分析,本文发现该地区破解"资源诅咒"的主要原因是该地区制造业部门全要素生产率(TFP)的提升,使得经济增长呈现出可持续性,但随着近年来该地区能源开发强度的增大,制度弱化的趋势日益呈现。

The Relationship between Economic Development Mode and Natural Resource Advantages in Inner Mongolia: An Empirical Analysis Based on the Resource Curse Hypothesis

The annual economic growth rate of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region ranked firstfrom 2002 to 2007. In the meantime, it maintains remarkable natural resource advantagesnationwide. This has prompted people to think whether Inner Mongolia has obviated the resourcecurse, and whether the development mode can shed light on the economic development acrosswestern regions of China. In addition, it is meaningful to investigate if the high growth rate ofeconomy is due to the rising of energy price, or to the mechanisms of economic growth itself, andif the Dutch disease exists in Inner Mongolia for the rapid investment on resource-based industriesin that the Dutch disease is generally applicable to areas with rapid growth of the primary product.Based on the resource curse hypothesis, the authors carried out an empirical analysis on therelationship between economic growth and natural resource advantages in Inner Mongolia in thecontext of its high-speed economic development and an abundance of natural resources. Economicdevelopment of Inner Mongolia over the period 1987-2007 was comprehensively explored. Resultsrevealed that in the long-term economic development, the resource curse hypothesis still exists inInner Mongolia. An increased intensity of resources exploitation showed a negative effect on theeconomic growth due primarily to the Dutch disease. On the other hand, technological progressplayed an active role in the economic growth. When considering the periods 1990-1999 and2000-2007 respectively, we suggested that the resource curse existed in Inner Mongolia during theperiod 1990-1999. Nevertheless, after the implementation of the western development strategy, theresource curse was greatly weakened over the period 2000-2007 when the role of development ofthe manufacturing sector positively contributed to the economic growth. It was also found thatduring the period 2000-2007, the weakness of institution was gradually emerging combined withintensifying energy development. The effect of technological progress on the economicdevelopment appeared to be immaterial as other studies had suggested in Inner Mongolia. Thereason for circumventing the resource curse in Inner Mongolia could be ascribed to theenhancement of the total factor productivity (TFP) of the manufacturing sector. The main reasonfor the growth of TFP was the government increasing investments in the manufacturing sector inInner Mongolia given its ability of sustainable development. Some policy recommendations aregiven on the economic development of Inner Mongolia in the context of the resource curse.