服务业就业比重与失业率的关系研究

面对当前中国沉重的就业压力,流行的观点认为,发展服务业能够扩大就业,降低失业率。本文利用世界银行相关经验数据,对服务业就业比重与就业总量、失业率等方面的关系进行计量经济学分析,发现了几个重要关系：就业总量与服务业就业比重存在显著正相关;劳动力总供给和女性劳动参与率与服务业就业比重也存在显著正相关。这一发现有力地解释了普遍存在于市场经济国家的一种现象：服务业就业比重的上升尽管创造了新的就业机会,但失业率却没有因此而下降。

Study on the Relations between Service Employment Proportion and Rates of Unemployment

Facing the serious unemployment in China, there is a popular viewpoint in researchers and governments considering that developing service is able to expand employment and to reduce the rates of unemployment. According to the related data coming from World Band, this paper studies the relationships between employment proportion in service and gross employment, and between the employment proportion in service and the rates of unemployment by econometric methods. Based on the study, we draw the conclusions that there is a strong positive correlation between employment proportion in service and gross employment, and the positive correlation also exists between employment proportion in service and gross labor supply, between employment proportion in service and labor participation rates of women. These findings can explain such phenomenon in developed countries that rates of unemployment didn't decrease with increasing of employment proportion in service.