托达罗模型的修正拓展及市民化应用

从变量的修正补充、模型的应用拓展及政策实践几个方面对托达罗模型的研究现状进行了简要述评,指出现有文献存在一些问题:如使用同一模型解释永久、非永久迁移两种行为决策的不足和引入的非经济收益或成本无法量化。针对我国市民化两阶段特征,指出"农民—农民工"转换阶段为个体短期迁移决策,主要依据城乡预期收入差异,适合运用托达罗模型原型;而"农民工—市民"转换阶段为家庭长期定居决策,主要依据家庭城乡预期净收益差异,且更为重视非经济收益和成本,适合运用拓展的托达罗模型。

The Modification and Expansion of Todaro Model and its Application in the Citizenization

This paper briefly reviews the research status on Todaro model from several aspects, such as the modified model variables,application development and policy practice,and points out that there are many problems in the existing literatures,such as using the same model not to enough explain the behavior decision-making on the permanent and the non permanent mi-gration,and the problem of non economic profits or costs can not be quantified.In view of two stages characteristics of China？s citizenization,the paper points out that the conversion stage of“farmers to migrant workers”is individual short-term migration decision-making,primarily based on urban and rural expected income differences,which applies to the traditional Todaro model;while the conversion stage of“migrant workers to citizens”is the family long-term set-tled decision-making,mainly based on the difference of expected net income between urban and rural families,and in this stage,pay more attention to the non economic profits and costs, which applies to the expanded Todaro model.